From the daily BTCUSD chart, you can see marked out cyan dotted lines and purple dashed lines. These represent the points where the Relative Price Momentum (RPM) indicator crosses the zero line... cyan for crossing UP and purple for crossing DOWN.
The chart and the correlation speaks for itself.
The last "crash" and pushing for a lower low is telling of a start of a retracement. And this retracement looks to be deep and fast. Technically, analysis is very challenging but expecting a deep retracement over the next weeks to about 35K, pausing around 40K for a bit. A deeper correction may bring price down to 24K, which is not surprising at all for Bitcoin / BTCUSD .
Currently, the RPM is pointing downwards, so it looks like it is working down, or at best consolidating over a large range (to be defined).
Plan well, execute as needed in the future...
I think regardless, we need to prepare...
and my way is drawing lines, projecting technically, and when it happens, execute plan, according to H0 or H1 (statistical hypotheses).
This correction was in the making with all the pumping, particularly with Tesla and Musk, and the media coverage. It is very like 2017, except that the narratives are slightly different.
Jan 11 was also a significant date, and the 20% correction being overwritten also tells me that it is not over.
Statistically, reversion to mean is in play as well.
Given all these factors, even if it is a falling knife, few choices we have...
pick it after it stops bouncing off the floor;
catch it after some falling time; or
catch it near where we think the floor might be.
These according to ascending risk levels.
Crypto market is an animal of its own, a legendary animal made real.
Technical analysis is a more challenging here than any where else, really... so we need to treat this as it really is.
Thanks for the comment, I do appreciate it.
Have a great day ahead!
All the best!