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Using the RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator with a 12 week period (equal to three months, or a quarter of a year), you get some interesting historic results when to buy and sell Bitcoin on a weekly chart with all available Bitstamp data since 2012.
Possible Bitcoin ETF hype:
"The Bitcoin ETFs could be days away and Bitcoin is simply overdue for a massive run." "Barry Silbert of SecondMarket confirmed last month that BIT is still slated for Q4. Not much time left in this Q4." -- 2 Nov 2014 -- twitter.com/Vlad_Roberto/status/529037704537731072
"Barry Silbert, CEO of the Digital Currency Group and founder of SecondMarket and the Bitcoin Investment Trust (BIT), is seeking regulatory approval to open BIT to ordinary investors – moving beyond the wealthy “accredited” investors that are currently the only ones with such access. That approval could come before the end of the year." -- Nov 3, 2014 -- insidebitcoins.com/news/investing-in-bitcoin-in-your-401k/26020
"The Bitcoin Investment Trust (BIT) now holds more than 100,000 BTC, according to Barry Silbert, CEO of SecondMarket and founder of the trust. Silbert has big plans for the Bitcoin Investment Trust, which is expected to open for public investors sometime in the fourth quarter of 2014." -- April 11, 2014 -- coindesk.com/barry-silbert-reveals-bitcoin-investment-trust-holds-100000-bitcoins/
Do you really think this is what's going to happen or are you just throwing the bulls a bone?
ProgramBaynesJourneyman
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very big fantasy bone... lol.
ChartArt
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tl;dr: I was very bearish, but I'm not anymore.
Until the big bearwhale event early October I would have said the chance that Bitcoin continues the washout and goes down to $200 or $100 is 90% and the chance that Bitcoin goes this year back up to $600 or more is 10%. I mean I'm now bear since July/August. All the bullish scenarios I posted were just scenarios and I wasn't a bull. Back then I didn't expect that people think I trade everything I post. And I couldn't have known that Tradingview integrates a feature showing where you marked a chart as long or short, that's why you see some green triangle dots on the chart above. Now I post chart as neutral when it's a far fetched out scenario I'm not actually believing in.
I began to be a bear 3 months ago when the price dropped below $610. This was when I posted this chart below. My lowest expectation was $400-$450:
tradingview.com/v/wRFOPTbL/
Then I told you here in the summer that Bitcoin is doomed, adding also lots of charts in the comments, but the reaction to all this super bearish information was almost zero, some comments were even downvoted:
tradingview.com/v/7mPxsnSP/
And my "One Secret Chart Of Bitcoin Bulls" chart was actually a joke. I originally wanted to change it to show how bearish the chart is, but gave the bulls a last chance to show their power, because the bear trend was still so tiny back then on the grand scale of things. Obviously the bulls lost.
tradingview.com/v/PjUjw6m2/
I then got so bearish that I looked for a very low price target two months ago and ended at the nice number of $333. As we know today even that low price target was not low enough:
tradingview.com/v/4WpZy8cK/
Now, if the entire market is still bearish and I'm way too ahead with my thinking of what could come next, then we might have a problem. Because falling below $300 could mean the end of the entire uptrend channel since 2012 (tradingview.com/v/mbeChoQL/). So I rather throw the bulls a last fat bullish bone, instead of seeing the disaster playing out. I like Bitcoin too much to see it die. And the chart actually shows potential that a long-term bottom could have been found here.
ChartArt
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For extra pleasure on the ride, I added a Bollinger %b with a 26 week period (equal to 1/2 year):
user100000
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it's very realistic because supercycle wave III is a trending pattern. the action will be contained within a long term channel. 100K is very real to me. no joke
MoonTrader
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If you're right, I'll invite you to a party on my private yacht.