Butcher_of_Bitmex

The Bearish Possibility to 'Bear' in Mind!

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
If you have been following me then you might have seen that I recently floated the idea of the diamond top reversal double tap. Although I am currently monitoring the bullish fractal ; I am aware that last time the fractal came along it failed and fell through the support. If this happens again it fulfils my idea of the diamond top reversal double tap (linked in related ideas below). This bullish fractal is the perfect way to get the double tap short signal.

So in terms of how I am playing this, I am 100% short between 11,000 and 11,500. Once we hit the bottom of the triangle; we will definitely see a small bounce. Rather than immediately switch to longs, I will let the shorts ride a bit and make sure I have a stop in profit but not too low, that I will get stopped out before a potential leg lower. If we fall below the support, we could see a retest from the bottom to confirm it as new resistance. So there will still likely be an opportunity to enter new shorts if this scenario occurs, however it will be more profitable to keep shorts entered from 11,000ish than 9,500ish.

The red dashed line is essentially the most important level to watch and determine whether my bullish idea plays out and we reach a double top (finally) or the double top is dead and we just start our journey down. I am 50/50 on which scenario will occur at this point, all that is known is that short between 11,000 and 11,500 is a given (for me).
Jul 19
Comment: Have moved stops above 11,600. Looking at the current situation I am expecting we touch the yellow line one more time before a strong move up. We will likely go as high as the red dotted line. I have amended short orders to cover up to 11,550. If we go this high then it is likely this bearish scenario will prevail over the bullish scenario I have also posted and we will not see a double top.
Jul 19
Comment: Expecting one more wick down to 10,325ish in the next couple hours as per the second target highlighted below. Once this is hit, it is a strong move up to our target zone. My entry for this long is 10,178 and I have my stop already set in profit at 10,250. Once we wick down to 10,325ish - and move up; my stop will move up with it.
Jul 20
Comment: Ascending triangle to take us to our target for shorts:
Jul 20
Comment: Bearish ascending wedge takes precedence. Looks unlikely (however not inplausable) to hit the red dotted target. Idea is not invalidated if we do not hit the red dotted line, just not quite as likely to be confirmed as a bearish move. The key level is the blue zone. If we breach it on the way down, then bear. If we bounce back up then double top.
yeah, went out at 11k,went short, but there might be resistance az 10.7
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So far so good !
+1 Reply
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