We're not out of the woods yet, but are we close? 1D view

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Recent rally have certainly brought a relief for bulls, after an almost 54% drop from the top of 13.8k, and many painful swings along the way. But is it solid this time, or just another bounce? Let's see what math has to show us in this case:

Phi-based oscillator, applied to 1D chart, shows two positive signs:
  • Oscillator line has become green from a few days past. From its perspective, a long position is allowed (although other aspects are necessary to define entry and exit points).
  • Fast average (magenta) is quickly approaching slower one (dark yellow), suggesting a cross is likely to happen soon. These can be really good for the bullish case.

As we can see from history, however, such scenario has happened, and been confirmed before -- and, still, bear market remained upon us. The time it happened in a "fake" fashion, though, gave, as depicted in chart, a good clue we should not get so excited about it: the crossing happened with price right below a key downtrend line (we could have thought the crossing would have helped price break above it, right? Sure we could. But let's not fall to the same temptation now. A breaking of a smaller, local uptrend line would be enough to trash that idea, at least as plan A).

We might have better luck now -- as during 3k lows. Perhaps if we are near a support zone , instead of resistance. Maybe we have to go down one more time to get the necessary power to break above that downtrend line keeping us grounded... All sounding great... Still, things may be a bit more challenging than that.

This is what we'll see next. 2D chart.

See you soon.

Jan 11
Comment: An interesting addition: cycles.
Jan 11
Comment: (of course, ignoring the cross back down, after "fake" cross up)
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Nice chart
@ssari, Tyvm!
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