BTCUSD
Hello everyone,
Apologies for the delay (work), but, here I am...
... back with another update.
As it turns out, I was right and wrong at the same time!
Previously, I mentioned that the red 9 on the TD sequential was a signal of a trend-change. I was right on that one.
However, I also mentioned that I didn't think BTC could/would break through the confluence of resistance, formed by the 21D SMA, 21D EMA and the 9,250 level. Clearly, I was wrong about that. It caught me by surprise.
In the period from July 21 to July 23 BTC printed 3 green days, gaining 6%, from a low of 9,150 to a high of 9,700.
The question is: what now?
I would suggest to wait and see: as could be expected, after consecutive green days, we are currently consolidating.
Some interesting observations:
1. BTC managed to break the 9,500 level (bottom horizontal blue arrow), but did not manage to break the 9,800 level top horizontal blue arrow).
2. Today's low corresponds with the multi-year down-trend (fuchsia) and the 9,500 level. Hence, we may see this turn into new primary support. (Though we need a few more days, to see if we can confirm this.)
3. BTC broke the 21D SMA (red curve), the 21D EMA (blue cruve) and the 50D SMA (green curve). Hence, the 50D SMA (+/- 9,350) could become a new secondary level of support.
4. During the "break-out", volume wasn't exceptionally high. In fact, if you look at the flashy green arrow (at the bottom of the chart), you will notice that the volume of the first 2 days of the break-out was rather low. This suggests that the source of the break-out is illiquidity, rather than significant demand.
5. RSI, VFI and DI are starting to roll over.
My conclusion is: I missed out on this break-out, however, in my opinion it shows signs of weakness and seems to have lost momentum, so I am not flipping bullish.
However, with some previous resistance broken and higher levels of support (seemingly) being formed, I would be a fool to be bearish.
Hence: I revise my opinion upwards to NEUTRAL.
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OPINION (revised upwards): NEUTRAL
ANALYSIS (updated):
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See above.