Bitcoin in big troubles again, whats next

botje11 Updated   
As expected, nothing has happened yet. At the moment we see the bulls pushing a bit. Pushing against this bear flag, trying to get out of it. But Bitmex is the one holding it back, together with it's brothers Coinbase and Bitstamp that determine the mark price for Bitmex. I see other exchanges trying to push higher, so we are still seeing a fight going on, even though there is not real movement.

What does stick out a bit, the volume on Bitstamp is a bit higher than one would expect during a bear flag. Others it's less clear. On the right we can see the bear flag, as i mentioned in an earlier update, bulls need to get above 6600 at least to fight off this bear flag. if they can do that, only then the bulls have a chance to maybe prevent a big drop below the 6K towards the low 5K. Still no guarantee it won't happen if they get above the 6600, but IMO the chances get closer to 50/50. At the moment the bears are still in full control.

As i mentioned yesterday we can expect this sideways movement for several days, and i think that if we stay below the 6600 that this small bear flag will probably turn into a bigger. Both bear flag scenarios could indicate a big panic V shape which i talked about months ago but did not think it would happen anymore.

On the left we can see 2 different scenario's. The blue one, which is less likely to happen as long as we stay below the 6600 (which was a huge resistance for weeks the past month. So the bulls need to show some real power the coming week or so to be able to pull that one off. The red line is semi bullish because it still shows a big drop eventually. I drew a big triangle here, but i am still not sure which of the 2 resistance lines will be the right one, the one from the 10K high or the blue one. If it's the black one, than bulls are in big trouble because that means the bulls did not even have enough power to test the resistance and fell short. This would mean the chances are very high for a break of support and another big drop. That would explain this huge dump we had yesterday.

If the blue one is the right one to use, than it still more bearish than bullish but a bit more in balance. I still think the 6200ish level i mentioned yesterday, is the level to hold for the bulls, maybe a bit more room toward 6100. I think if those levels break the chances increase allot for another big drop. So for the bulls to turn things around again, they need to show some strength the coming week and put the bears under pressure, as they did in July when they rallied from 6300 towards the 6800 and broke it because the kept the pressure on the bears. I am quite sure it's the same Bitmex bears that lost the big fight back then, because you could see big amounts of short selling but because the bulls showed conviction their volume was bigger than the bears. That's why they won and forced that big squeeze. This is what the bulls need to show again if they want to safe themselves from a huge drop, conviction and volume!

So unless the 6600 breaks, the bears will keep 100% control

Previous analysis:
There was allot of resistance around the 7500/7550, mostly at the Bitmex brothers. In this picture you can see the differences, where Bitfinex once again is trying to push the market up on it's own. It looks like this bear flag has turned into a bearish wedge, which indicates a drop towards the lows again. But this one is not that reliable though IMO, mostly because of Bitfinex.

Still nothing happened just as i predicted 2 days ago, so i hope i have saved you guys some time and did some personal things instead of watching this all day long. Me and my groups took some days off, important to take some time off once in a while, to have some rest but also to clear your mind a bit.

Actually nothing has changed yet, so everything from the above is still the same now. There has been a new resistance level created now on the lower time frame. Bears still have the upper hand, open intrest on Bitmex has increased again the past days, so either bulls or bears have increased their positions again. So we might be closing in on a 200/300 point shake out move (just a guess). I think the shorts have increased, but difficult to be sure because we don't have that information unfortunately :(.
One thing is for sure, everyone has turned into a convinced bear, but for very good reasons of course. But markets is not about logic, so whatever you do, don't just sit back and relax. There will be shake out's sooner or later on either side.

A few factors that are off now at this low.

- All the exchanges have been at the same price since yesterday. Maybe
- That last drop 10 min ago, was initiated by Bitfinex, think i have not seen that in months maybe.
- This is not your typical 1 min bear flag.
- Some dumping on Finex but while i am writing this, the support buying seems to have begun again on Finex. But, it could be short buying it back though, since short on Finex have dropped the past 24 hours. So if it's only that, than it's just temp buying support. Because it's not buying it's taking profit of short positions.

This is not something to trade on guys, just sharing some insights that might have no meaning at all, but IMO it is certainly something to keep in mind for the future.

Of course, the Barty boys at work again. I knew there was something off about this bear flag i mentioned before. I did not even trade it myself, don't think i am showing off. I did as i told you, something to remember for the future. Anything we can do to make the job of these guys more difficult, we should. This almost identical to a month ago, when we dropped to 6000 and made that move up

This move by the way

So far, todays rally and the bull flag in the making, seems to be clearly different than the one we had a month ago, in the chart here above. This triangle seems quite solid at the moment. But remember, the Barty Boys are here again. Alts don't give a clear sign yet, some seem to be wanting to move up some are hesitating.

Even if this rally would succeed, don't expect too much from it. It might nog even reach it's target around 6650. If we do drop, the 6200 should be a support level for the bulls, like we can see in the chart above from a month ago.

If, somehow, the bulls do show up and push this higher with real conviction and volume, before the end of the daily candle, it could mean a reversal. But it won't mean anything if we don't see volume. Because without it, it would probably mean it's mostly shorts closing and not real buying power.

I will try to post an update later or tomorrow.
I was just about to write how they turned it into a Bart move again. But it seems that there probably something else going on this time. Right at the moment (as i have been informed, so correct me if i am wrong) this got published.

So this complicates things a bit at the moment. I have no idea what kind of weight it has, assuming it even has some weight. If this drop really came from this news and we still stay above the 6200. Than the chances increase we will go up again. Because than it was probably just a small panic sell.

But i still not sure about the timing and what it actually means yet. So please do your own research about this before giving it real value.

Besides all this, the move is almost identical to a month ago so far. Bears are still in control, that is clear once again. The level to break is still the 6500/6500 (it's like i traveled back in time a month ago because i kept saying the same thing!). Or that bearish trend line might do the trick as well on the left chart around 6450/6400.

So far still following the pattern from the chart above. At the moment there is a higher low now since the 6200 has been holding as a very good support level, so far!I have been watching the price action the past hour or 2, once again i can distribution on Bitmex. What i also think i am seeing, is just bots pushing the price down each time we get to that 6340ish level. Has happened several times now today. I can't say how much volume these bears have but so far the bulls are giving up a fight. From what i can judge, bulls need to push it above the 6400ish to force these bear to give. In other words, reasonable chance that could trigger a squeeze upwards. So far the bears are still holding it though.

I am just really getting the chills when i am seeing this how they just control that level. It's quite identical to the moves we had a month ago when we were around these levels. Just look back and you will see it. Showing several inverse H&S patterns with several failed breakouts. Just be aware of it, each break out is still very dangerous. Shows the bears are not even blinking

Was looking hopeful for the bulls yesterday, but the bears are keeping the doors shit! The price is getting closer to that rising trend line and assuming, as i mentioned yesterday, there was clear distribution again on Bitmex, unless we get above the 6350ish, the bears will attack the 6200 support again. Usually, when something should go up (because of a pattern or whatever) but is not able to, it goes the other way. In other words this means in this case, buyers are trying and have tried several times the past days to go up, but so far their buying volume is not enough (lower highs on the lower time frame) we have to assume the bears will take over sooner or later. Unless, the bulls can set a small step and break that lower high pattern. Only real step would be a break of 6400 and second the 6500/6550

Look like a tiny breakout now, still in the danger zone of 6150/6500. But ETHjust made a small bounce with a potential reversal for the short term. Bitcoin made a small breakout, did not follow through, but i see allot of buy orders coming in to catch the price and it's suspiciously close to the Bitfinex price. Based on this i would say some Bitmex people want to go up, probably do a bear shake out now. But again, still inside the danger zone

Well, seems that bitmex price was only for like 15 minutes close to Finex. Probably a few big buyers that did not get any backup. Because the Bitmex brothers were not in line for that time period, maybe the first time in days so i though it was a signal since some alts were also making a small jump up. But the brothers are perfectly in line again, staying steady 10/20 points below the other exchanges again

There was some bullish momentum at this small breakout, now it's almost completely gone again. Just no volume at all which is a bad sign. It should not drop below the triangle again.


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