First things first, I am a long and true believer of bitcoin and i believe it will continue to rise over the years. but sometimes you need to take a step back to reality and try not to get caught up in the moment, we are currently at 51 days since our last major correction at the time of the segwitx2 fork this will put us at 62 since the last correction. There have been two other major corrections this year.
The first was in June, after bitcoin rising 155% from April (57Days) it went on to pull back 35% over 35 days The second was in September, after bitcoin rising 158% from the previous bottom in July (47Days), It went on to pull back 35% over 13 days.
If bitcoin get's just under the 8K mark it will mean it has increased 150% from the previous bottom in September, now with the other two previous highs that went on to have a major corrections both couldn't break the major mark's, the first being 3K and the second being 5K, so i think we will struggle to break the 8K mark and we will see roughly a 35% correction over a 24 day period.
I think a few things will trigger the correction.
The first being the fork, now a few different scenarios could happen with the fork and there is already good information about so i won't go into to the different scenarios, but i think just after the fork we will see the big investors (whales) start to sell causing the initial sell off, this will be followed by those who only jumped on bitcoin in order to receive the free coin once they know they have it, they will also start to sell either retreating back to alts or securing the profit to wait on the side lines until they find a new entry point, this will create a bigger sell off. then we will finally see the panic sellers come into play causing the final push down till we find some support. The second being general FUD/bad new's, now it may not always be enough on it's own to cause a massive sell off but if we see a flood of FUD and bad news as the fork takes place along side the initial sell off due to the whales, i think it will add fuel to the fire.
Now as i said i believe in bitcoin and the blockchain, but in my opinion its healthy that we have such corrections along the way, as it will benefit bitcoin more in the long run. For example If bitcoin went from 1K straight to 10K without any corrections along the way, the correction would be much more severe and could damage bitcoins long term potential.
That's my opinion/prediction, I'm not saying my prediction is going to be right as we all know crypto can sometime's be very un-predictable, so please take it as a pinch of salt and don't make any finical decisions due to my opinion/prediction as you should never listen or take one persons advice, gather all the information/opinions you can and come to your own conclusion.
I hope you found my opinion on the matter interesting! anyhow, i am off to enjoy the rest of my weekend and i suggest you do the same as we have a few wild weeks ahead of us, remember trade carefully!
@FrankieArnell I'm not very familiar with OBV, but after just looking at your chart, every time it has reached the current high, a violent correction has followed. A further confirmation or what do you make of it? Thanks for your post, I really like it a lot! :)
FrankieArnell
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@pjims, hello sir, yes i also used the OBV as another conformation (I did add a trend line running across the highs, but i must have accidentally removed it before posting). no worries, i am glad you liked it :)
Glickwarlock
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Ty sir . Would be perfect and so I'll wait for it to happen ready for action :)
Very clear and good analysis! I’ll wait to go from alts into btc for a while
Optimisticdog
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Wise words
Doc-al-Citadel
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lovely
roe82
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If I understood segwit2x correctly, and I may not have, so correct me if I'm wrong but the idea wasn't to fork into a coin with a name separate other than BTC, but to actually get enough majority miner support to force BTC to change under the hood, but keep the name and ledger. If that succeeds, it means no free airdrop. If it fails to reach its majority and has to fork into a new name, only then might we see the airdrop, I don't know.