So, it seems that the bullmarket continuation scenario is getting more and more unlikely by the day. This scenario would have brought us to 100K sometime this year. However, due to the continued weakness of bitcoin, a bearmarket seems much more likely :(
But how can you trade a bearmarket? Well, it seems that one has to wait for the right buying opportunity, when a dip occurs, which goes significantly below the weekly bollinger band.
Historically, in the 2014-2015 bearmarket, every time btc dumped strongly below the lower weekly bollinger band, a very strong bounce took place, about 50-100% bounce, every single time.
So, trading this market is pretty simple: wait till it dumps below weekly bband, buy, sell at the bounce, after 30-50% rebound, to be on the safe side. Rinse, repeat. Wait for the next dump.
And then, in 2019, the low will be reached at some point, and one can start buying good old cheap coins at around 2K :) Because the next bullrun WILL come, starting in 2020 with the halving.
The chances for the continuation of the bullmarket this year, are not zero however. They are small, but this scenario is also not completely off the table.
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I just looked at the first chart from march, where it was getting more obvious that we'd be seeing a bearmarket in 2018/19, instead of the bullmarket continuation scenario. This chart is still valid and still can be used as an estimate for adapting one's buying strategy. I still think that 2019 will see a flat period in the 1500-3500 range, bouncing around between those two levels, but mostly flat. 2020 is probably the year when we'll start the next bullrun.
Using the weekly b-bands as a buy signal may not work. If you look at the previous bear markets in btc history (except the 2014 bear) it never fell below this criteria. There are other signals you can watch instead (like the daily rsi bellow 30).
I'd also like to point out that a lot of people seem to be using the bear of 2014-2015 as a reference. This is just one data point and I really don't see any reason for the bear this time to behave the same way or ending up being in the same time frame. Determining how long this bear will last is impossible imo. The halving is something to keep in mind but it is only one of many things that will determine when we change to bull again. I personally will be looking for a sentiment in the market when the discussion switches from being about the price to be focused on innovation and usability. To reference the last bear market again I remember at the end of the bear no one was speculating in crazy price gains any more. The debate was about scaling and how to increase the user base. That's what I will be looking for again.
Mclobster
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@Johnsdad, Well sentiment in the market is dead atm. No one speculating about crazy numbers anymore. We still have to see more discussion on usability instead. I agree with you that we need a flat period of low prices for this. Maybe look back to this thread in year?
Mclobster
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@Johnsdad, Also now we are bellow the weekly b-bands so as to your original chart we should be buying here. Also the weekly rsi bellow 30.
SebastianofMoon
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@Johnsdad, Yeah, a bounce might come soon, however, i think we'll see even lower prices in 2019. We might be able to buy in the 1xxx range.
SorinBlajan
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good job brother ;)
darobsta
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Will follow this closely. Like the mix of rsi and bbands for signals. In terms of long term trends I am thinking something like this :-
I'd also like to point out that a lot of people seem to be using the bear of 2014-2015 as a reference. This is just one data point and I really don't see any reason for the bear this time to behave the same way or ending up being in the same time frame. Determining how long this bear will last is impossible imo. The halving is something to keep in mind but it is only one of many things that will determine when we change to bull again. I personally will be looking for a sentiment in the market when the discussion switches from being about the price to be focused on innovation and usability. To reference the last bear market again I remember at the end of the bear no one was speculating in crazy price gains any more. The debate was about scaling and how to increase the user base. That's what I will be looking for again.