bwy
Long

Bitcoin going higher with potential long term breakout forming

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
Finally there's another really good opportunity for bitcoin             to breakout of the downtrend here (last one was in November).

I should have posted this chart earlier as my daily breakout was at 232 a few days ago, but I think this is still likely to go higher and still relevant for the larger time frames.

A key indication is the downtrend is forming an ascending triangle with a potential base just above 300 (about 305 or 310). The lowest low was 150, but now we've made a clear higher low at 210, which if we do knock on 310's door again I'd think would be likely to break (we won't know until it does though).

Key indicators:

- MACD is showing signs of positive divergence.
- DMI is showing the first solid buy signal on the 3 Day chart that we've seen since the May rally up to 680. Seeing that ADX in between the DI+ and DI- means the average trend is right in line with the average up and average down (this is right where you want a trend to be).
- CCI at the moment is -4 which almost always means it's going positive very soon here which will signal buys for many traders (traders will see price above moving averages).
- ATR is rather tricky at the moment as it still shows high volatility . Normally I'd like to see a lot less volatility in a reversal, so obviously I'm not as heavy long as I'd like to be. My ATR indicator is actually a percentage based (helps normalize the indicator) volatility over 10 days and 200 days. I'd prefer to see the 10 day ATR well below the 200 day for a good indication of a new trend change.

Obviously we're likely to run into the long term downtrend line which will likely spook some traders into selling as we approach. I'm not too worried though as there really is no way to know if it will breach the trend line or not, but probably something to keep in mind.

I'm commenting on the 3 Day chart as the 1 Day was clearly bullish since the 230's and since I was late to publish I thought looking at a larger time frame would be more relevant.

Related Ideas

Clear breakout of the trading range to the upside. Uptrend on the daily now in progress.
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