It is starting to look like a breakout to new all time highs is coming.
4hr chart is currently on a TD9 sell, so I’m watching for one of two things to happen. 1) we breakout of the symmetrical triangle on the 1h then pull back to test the top of the ascending triangle on the 4hr or 2) we pull back to the $33.1k (100hr WMA) area then bounce to break through to new all time highs.
Target to watch for top is around $43 - 45K range. Could go higher from there but that should be a good area to start watching more closely.
4hr chart is currently on a TD9 sell, so I’m watching for one of two things to happen. 1) we breakout of the symmetrical triangle on the 1h then pull back to test the top of the ascending triangle on the 4hr or 2) we pull back to the $33.1k (100hr WMA) area then bounce to break through to new all time highs.
Target to watch for top is around $43 - 45K range. Could go higher from there but that should be a good area to start watching more closely.
Comment:
Symmetrical triangle never broke. We saw a little more significant selloff to test the triangle with the news of the capital building be "peacefully protested" in but was quickly bought up.
Hitting a little scheduled resistance on the 4hr chart.
1hr chart is on a TD8 so if you aren't fully in now wait for a retrace to the top of the ascending triangle.
I may still park some orders between $33.5 and $29K overnight. The political noise has made things a little choppy.
Hitting a little scheduled resistance on the 4hr chart.
1hr chart is on a TD8 so if you aren't fully in now wait for a retrace to the top of the ascending triangle.
I may still park some orders between $33.5 and $29K overnight. The political noise has made things a little choppy.
Comment:
Symmetrical triangle target was hit then a smallish pull back after the TD9 sell. $40K appears to be playing psychological resistance and we will be having another TD9 sell coming up in the next hour or two. Watching for a stall out just under $40K or a push to around $40.3K then pull back before going higher.
My eyes are now on an old top channel line that has had significants over the years. Barring unforeseen events, I'll be closing my longs on a blow off top just above and in the lines general vicinity (~$41-47K) then watching for what happens next. My expectation is we can not close above it and we see a correction and some of our untested support levels tested.
If we break through the old channel, historically we'll come back down to test it as support then go absolutely parabolic... Let's hope not, because it does not end well after such a move.
My eyes are now on an old top channel line that has had significants over the years. Barring unforeseen events, I'll be closing my longs on a blow off top just above and in the lines general vicinity (~$41-47K) then watching for what happens next. My expectation is we can not close above it and we see a correction and some of our untested support levels tested.
If we break through the old channel, historically we'll come back down to test it as support then go absolutely parabolic... Let's hope not, because it does not end well after such a move.
Comment:
"a push to around $40.3K then pull back before going higher." Almost made it to $40.4... my bad. = )
Supports are breaking. I'll be watching this bounce closely. Don't want to see a close below MA.
Supports are breaking. I'll be watching this bounce closely. Don't want to see a close below MA.
Comment:
Stuck in no mans land now.
I started getting uncomfortable/bearish when I realized this chart had double bottomed.
I had about 2/3 an update written around 4:30-5 ET but unfortunately had something personal come up and was pulled away before I could publish or get my sell orders in. The plan was to ladder out on the blue horizontal resistance lines with the top one just over $39.9K. The thought being, it is easy to get back in at those levels with the breakout of another ascending triangle.
Plan now is to set stops and revaluate in the morning. The 4hr chart is still holding up, but I believe is on a TD8. The count never reset, so technically over extended but we see this often with Bitcoin. The 4hr chart could be considered a higher low and I am not positive the double bottom is on other exchange charts. The exchange I am trading on does not have a double bottom...
Daily is still holding up.
4hr moving averages are giving possible warning signs of pulling back. Not pulling up soon above $39K or extended time below $38.3K may give a signal to be out shorter term.
Daily early warning MA flatting a little. Just something to keep in the back of the head. If we start hold over $39K then likely nothing.
I started getting uncomfortable/bearish when I realized this chart had double bottomed.
I had about 2/3 an update written around 4:30-5 ET but unfortunately had something personal come up and was pulled away before I could publish or get my sell orders in. The plan was to ladder out on the blue horizontal resistance lines with the top one just over $39.9K. The thought being, it is easy to get back in at those levels with the breakout of another ascending triangle.
Plan now is to set stops and revaluate in the morning. The 4hr chart is still holding up, but I believe is on a TD8. The count never reset, so technically over extended but we see this often with Bitcoin. The 4hr chart could be considered a higher low and I am not positive the double bottom is on other exchange charts. The exchange I am trading on does not have a double bottom...
Daily is still holding up.
4hr moving averages are giving possible warning signs of pulling back. Not pulling up soon above $39K or extended time below $38.3K may give a signal to be out shorter term.
Daily early warning MA flatting a little. Just something to keep in the back of the head. If we start hold over $39K then likely nothing.
Comment:
Still in and charts looking like they want to continue up.
I was finally able to sleep well when the 10 min chart (bottom right) started forming a symmetrical triangle, which broke out over night, inside of a possible ascending triangle.
Looks like right now we are testing the top of the ascending triangle and 100 WMA on 10 min.
Trend is still intact on 4hr and daily charts. 4hr technically went bullish just before this shake out/retest. Right now I'll be watching around $44.4 and $47.4 for top but it is getting choppy so will continue to keep an eye on things as they progress.
I was finally able to sleep well when the 10 min chart (bottom right) started forming a symmetrical triangle, which broke out over night, inside of a possible ascending triangle.
Looks like right now we are testing the top of the ascending triangle and 100 WMA on 10 min.
Trend is still intact on 4hr and daily charts. 4hr technically went bullish just before this shake out/retest. Right now I'll be watching around $44.4 and $47.4 for top but it is getting choppy so will continue to keep an eye on things as they progress.
Comment:
Watching what support does in this area. 4hr chart providing support and 200 EMA on 10 Min.
Comment:
Need a good bounce and trading over $40K but all still intact.
Comment:
Exactly what we wanted to see.
Comment:
Pattern on the 4hr to watch.
Lower time frame.
Don't want a 10min close lower than the black horizontal but be mindful of the shape on the 4hr. The 4hr takes precedence at this point.
Also watch the TD count. I did get close to closing on the pull back to the top of the symmetrical but the 10Min chart was on a TD count of 7 or 8. I had to check the extension of the triangle to see it was still barley in play.
These moves are being pushed to the extreme to shake people out.
Daily MA may be giving some warning signs. We'll want to see trading over $40.5K.
Generally the weekends have been bullish and could push us to the top we are looking for.
Lower time frame.
Don't want a 10min close lower than the black horizontal but be mindful of the shape on the 4hr. The 4hr takes precedence at this point.
Also watch the TD count. I did get close to closing on the pull back to the top of the symmetrical but the 10Min chart was on a TD count of 7 or 8. I had to check the extension of the triangle to see it was still barley in play.
These moves are being pushed to the extreme to shake people out.
Daily MA may be giving some warning signs. We'll want to see trading over $40.5K.
Generally the weekends have been bullish and could push us to the top we are looking for.
Comment:
Came right down to the black horizontal line with no 10min close below it and the chart structure is now maturing.
Like I said in the last update, the swings are being pushed to the extreme, with fake outs, to shake people out of the market.
The TD9 sell on the 10Min chart have been spot on for anyone looking for shorter term swing trades.
From the 4hr perspective.
We are currently hung up on this 2.272 Fibonacci on the daily chart. The more we consolidate under it the more likely we are to break through.
Dotted line and black Fib lines above are where I'll be watching for a possible top... Maybe put some sell orders and watch what the pull back looks like after. It's easy to get back in if you sell the top of a move.
Like I said in the last update, the swings are being pushed to the extreme, with fake outs, to shake people out of the market.
The TD9 sell on the 10Min chart have been spot on for anyone looking for shorter term swing trades.
From the 4hr perspective.
We are currently hung up on this 2.272 Fibonacci on the daily chart. The more we consolidate under it the more likely we are to break through.
Dotted line and black Fib lines above are where I'll be watching for a possible top... Maybe put some sell orders and watch what the pull back looks like after. It's easy to get back in if you sell the top of a move.
Trade closed: stop reached:
Closed on this retrace at resistance.
I don't have time to write much, but triangle breakdown. Bouncing and support now becoming resistance. Bouncing up towards the death cross of the two moving averages. Looks like a retrace before further downside to me.
Daily chart is on a TD9 sell so we may see a 1-4 day correction.
Warning sign on the Daily Moving Averages is getting stronger. Will need sustained trading over $40.1 and higher to reverse.
I don't have time to write much, but triangle breakdown. Bouncing and support now becoming resistance. Bouncing up towards the death cross of the two moving averages. Looks like a retrace before further downside to me.
Daily chart is on a TD9 sell so we may see a 1-4 day correction.
Warning sign on the Daily Moving Averages is getting stronger. Will need sustained trading over $40.1 and higher to reverse.
Comment:
Strong bounce off 7 Week SMA.
Comment:
I thought I had enough time to run to the store before posting my target bottom.... but happened too quick.
That was a perfect hit to support and could very well be the bottom of this move.
If you missed it, we are hitting some resistance areas now and more around $39K if we get through. Let it pull back again and watch for a bounce around the middle of todays wick. ~$35-36K
If it swings lower than $34.3 then I'll try to update with a new target. I don't think this is the move that will take us back down to around $23K, but I could be.
If you like these updates give the chart a thumbs up and me a follow and I'll try to do more as time allows.
That was a perfect hit to support and could very well be the bottom of this move.
If you missed it, we are hitting some resistance areas now and more around $39K if we get through. Let it pull back again and watch for a bounce around the middle of todays wick. ~$35-36K
If it swings lower than $34.3 then I'll try to update with a new target. I don't think this is the move that will take us back down to around $23K, but I could be.
If you like these updates give the chart a thumbs up and me a follow and I'll try to do more as time allows.
Comment:
I'll need to look at it more, but I think $23K if this doesn't work.
I'll need to look at it more, but I think $23K if this doesn't work.
Comment:
Last night was interesting... I didn't sleep much.
Moment of truth right now. Need to break through MA. A lower swing high could spell trouble. Fall back down to low and we may see a capitulation/big sell off.
4Hr on TD8 but plenty of time to go for things to get wild. A close under 100 VWMA and it could get ugly. Offering strong support.
Moment of truth right now. Need to break through MA. A lower swing high could spell trouble. Fall back down to low and we may see a capitulation/big sell off.
4Hr on TD8 but plenty of time to go for things to get wild. A close under 100 VWMA and it could get ugly. Offering strong support.
Comment:
Target buy hit on bottom left (4Hr). Watch for support to become resistance on bottom right (10 Min).
Comment:
I'd like to see support hold right around this line.
If it breaks, I'll set limit close just under swing low and look to buy lower. At the MA on 4Hr and bottom of the buy zone.
If it breaks, I'll set limit close just under swing low and look to buy lower. At the MA on 4Hr and bottom of the buy zone.
Reevaluate if it breaks down, but keep in mind the TD9 sell off is only in play for the next ~4-12 hrs and breakout is likely. A target buy of ~$33.1K for long if the symmetrical triangle breaks down.