I have analysed 6 Bitcoin Cycles Since 2013 and found some interesting facts which relates to the current situation and the future.
1. We had 3 Triangle Correction Patterns and 3 Zigzag Correction Patterns. Triangle pattern or ABCDE correction completes near to the Support line drawn from the start of the Cycle. Same happens with the Zigzag correction pattern
2. E Wave of ABCDE Starts slower and crash towards the Support line mentioned above after the major support line is broken (See Red dotted line)
BTC CYCLE 1 E WAVE:
BTC CYCLE 2 E WAVE:
3. If this applies to the current cycle then crash will start around 7k
BTC CYCLE 6 E WAVE:
4. New cycle will start with Impulsive waves 1-5 once the ABCDE correction is completed
BTC CYCLE 2 STARTS AFTER E WAVE OF CYCLE 1:
BTC CYCLE 3 STARTS AFTER E WAVE OF CYCLE 2:
5. New cycle usually starts July-August and Ends in January or the opposite
BTC CYCLE 1,4 & 6 Started in January and Ends in July/August BTC CYCLE 2,3 & 5 Started in July/August and Ends in January
MORE INFO ABOUT THE 6 BITCOIN CYCLES (UPDATED 6/6/2018)
According to the Average change% = 1000% + average days for impulsive waves = 159, we can expect Bitcoin to reach 50k by Jan 2019 as Bitcoin is heading towards 5 - 5.5k. Note this can only happen if the CARTEL don't suppress the Bitcoin price.
RISK DISCLOSURE:
Please note that this is purely Educational purposes only and not as Individual Investment Advice. If you choose to follow the above techniques you do so at your own risk after giving thorough and reasonable thought and consideration to your actions and their potential consequences
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Looks like BTC Finally started the scariest Wave of all ((iii)) with 2 confirmations . If BTC goes down below 7k then its fully confirmed as this is the starting point of wave ((ii))
Impressive work my mate :-) Detailed, to the point and precise, I like this one, it's a gem, thanks for sharing! :-))
nakov
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@cryptogast33, do you agree with his conclusions mid-term, i.e. for the end of 2018? End of year is when markets usually enter an accelerated distribution mode since Wyckoff times. Question is will they choose to mark-up and not accumulate after August? Thanks.
CryptoSwindle
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@nakov, It's possible buddy, but I think it's taking longer before bear market is over. May (summer) and end of year times are known to be bad times in stock market and crypto has its own history, but it's resembling more and more the same behaviors, so expecting more sell of end of year, after potential mark up in around early September, but not past 12k.
When we compare previous bear markets, the bear market are taking longer. Correlate '18 vs '14 vs '11. Copy-paste '14 fractal and see where we are now, it's taking at least 50% longer. If that bear market took 1-1.5 years, then my expectations are 1.5-2.25 years before we can see a new bullrun, so possible 6 months of accumulation prior.
Just my view :-)
cI8DH
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Excellent work my friend :)
surangadesilva
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@hkh222, Your always welcome :-)
globalz11112
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imho the market cycle hasnt finished yet. Retail hasnt paniced or capitulated. What i can feel when i look around on twitter, tv, yt etc.. We are still in denial. Btc is fragile just a rumor about europe banning ico's would get us crushed or really any bad news of this caliber.
pepper_nax
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The most useful analysis of late! Thank you!
surangadesilva
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@pepper_nax, Thanks my friend. Analysing the big picture all cycles really helpes to see the small mistakes that everyone has made including myself. Hope this helps in the long run :-). Also this is how far back i can go with TV
pepper_nax
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@surangadesilva, By the way the date July 6 coincides with July 5 - Settlement date of December futures for CME.
Mainadm did a good analysis:
surangadesilva
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@pepper_nax, Yes i had a similar cme analysis but i dont think we going upto 9k in June as the 5 subwaves of C needs to be completed going down first before we can move up.