I am neither bull nor bear. I trade what is in front of me to accumulate more USD. This analysis shows that we approach a level that gets my attention.
1) we approach a price level close to several resistance areas. (upper trend line of the triangle, 200d moving average) as well es sell signals (TD -0.24% 9 daily sell and divergence on many different time frames)
2) Ichimoku time analysis shows that we approach an important time-level (namely day 26)
3) Longs slowly cover their positions (can be seen on the Bitfinex BTC 5.96% short / long ratio)
4) Price action speeds up
For sure, we are in a current bull trend (immediately) BUT what I am looking for is a tradable setup (LST-level signal trigger) which provides me a low risk high reward trading opportunity. If I am wrong and do not get triggered I am okay with it as I probably were wrong but lost not even a single dollar.
In short: I am looking for weakness signals within the next days. Candlestick reversal patterns, sideways price action, classical charting patterns etc. focusing on the area around 200d moving average around 8400-8700 USD area.
Once I found a setup I will trade it to the downside.if we close above 200d moving average I will stay out of the market in USD patiently waiting for another trading opportunity. (whether it is to the upside or to the downside)
Something to note which is my personal opinion: I know the SEC decision considering the BTC 5.96% ETF is around. Somewhere between August 10-17. I do not buy into FOMO green candles as I personally believe the outcome of the decision might not be bullish. There is the chance for a denial (33%- bearish news), the chance of extending time for consideration (33%- not bullish news) and an approval (33%- would be super bullish). Nonetheless, I do not think it will get approved as the underlying market is not regulated at all, tether might be a fraud and could influence the price too much. I don't say they have to deny it but i is just a personal opinion as despite other facts there are too many red flags.
Could I be wrong? FOR SURE! But I try to eliminate most of the risk by patiently waiting for a setup and (in this case a possible short trigger)
I'm hoping the day of turn is a day late so we can reach my 1:1 n wave target of 8700 before a nice healthy 50% retrace to the flat top of the kumo. That said, I'll be keeping my short open just in case she dumps deeper. I'm also ready to flip short if we get more than a 0.236 retrace from this price level.
FiftySatoshi
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@Fevs01, Yea actually +/-1 day is nothing to worry about. I stacked some limit sell orders close to the 200d MA just in case it pumps while I am asleep with a tight SL above it. I am not short yet as I have enough USD left to buy a sudden 10% red candle. I wait for something that shows me indecision because shorting right against a bullish engulfing does not make me feel comfortable. This market can do another leg up instant because long positions got cleared without any red price action. I don't know how this is possible, probably wash-trading by buying up the own buy orders but what I know is if they again stack them up they can pump the price.
Flat kumo would be a nice entry if it holds support!
SMXP
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Great analysis, one of the best i have read so far, keep up the good work,
i like how you noticed the 26 day uptrends/pumps, followed buy the corrections/dumps.
I would just be careful with the shorting right now - the market is obviously manipulated and if the whales could pump up the price from around 5900 to 8200, they might not stop here right now.
Also defenitely agree with your part considering the news about the SEC ETF stuff. I dont see it being approved either, but i guess time will tell.
Looking forward to more ideas from you
Good profits and trades!
FiftySatoshi
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@SMXP, thank you very much :) yea time will tell! If the next days price consolidate, then we get a range with fractals which I would love to trade.
Ronnie_Dong
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FiftySatoshi
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@dongrui, certainly a possibility ;) If this happens, I would buy in after a retrace from the 10k when we SUCESSFULLY tested a resistance area!
I'm hoping the day of turn is a day late so we can reach my 1:1 n wave target of 8700 before a nice healthy 50% retrace to the flat top of the kumo. That said, I'll be keeping my short open just in case she dumps deeper. I'm also ready to flip short if we get more than a 0.236 retrace from this price level.