It's been a month since the growth has started, from 17 July to 17 August the Bitcoin showed a significant growth of 65%! Usually, after such a growth, the market faces a downwards correction. Will it be different this time? Let's take a look at 3 possible options:
FIRST OPTION*located at the main picture above* The most realistic scenario, to be honest. The third week of August is about growth to the $50000 - $51000 zone. The fourth week of August is about forming a reversal pattern such as double top near the $51000 resistance (strongest resistance at the moment). September which is usually bearish month for BTC is all about correction.
To remain in a safe zone during the correction #BTC needs to close weekly candle above the $40000 support. Candles' shadows can reach $37000 - $38000 zone which would be great for the bull-trend. Speaking about the long-term, after this correction Bitcoin can freely go for the new ATH this year. We can see a repeat of the 2017 year with all the following cycles.
SECOND OPTION This scenario means that the bullish market is over. This will happen in case BTC starts dumping from the current points and breaks the ascending support(orange line). This will be the first "red flag". Secondly, the major support of $42000 will be broken as well. And weekly closure below the $40000 support will the the last nail in the bullish trend's coffin. Once it happens, the $20000 is almost imminent.
Some people speak about February - March 2020. Using this theory to the current market, we should see a massive correction to the $25000 - $28000 and a fast recovery. However, there is one big difference. The March 2020 dump was caused by the strong fundamentals related to the COVID 19 panic. This time we don't have any FUD, so if such a correction happens, it would be real and last long.
THIRD OPTION The safest scenario for the bulls - gradual growth. The hardest scenario to build, to be honest. In fact, there are two sub-paragraphs:
Instant & Fast dump to the $38000 area is order to trigger a bunch of bulls' positions and then pump to the $55000 zone from where we can possible see another correction downwards to the $45000. Then consolidation, and a new ATH in late October - November.
Upward spike above the $50000 - $52000 zone where a bunch of latecomers will open LONG position run by FOMO. Then juicy downward correction to the $42000 - $45000 zone. Then consolidation, and a new ATH in late October - November.