I decided to use the BTCUSD daily chart because I think it starkly depicted the reversal in momentum between the bulls and the bears. For the past year, BTC has been on a torrent bull run from $3,750 to $65,000. You can see that we consistently made higher highs and lows in price action and the MACD remained above the zero line for the entire run. However, everything changed after hitting $65,000. Bitcoin broke the ascending channel it had been moving in since October 2020 and made a lower low for the first time in a long time. The MACD strongly broke support and the zero line thrusting all that bullish momentum back into bearish territory.
As a result, I am shifting gears on BTCUSD from bullish to bearish. That is not to say that BTC can't revisit $60,000 again. I am just adjusting my sights from higher highs and lows to lower highs and lows. I think the long overdue correction is upon us and I will be preparing for it as such. I am targeting $35,000 - $40,000 where there is strong support. It also coincides with where the price action could catch support with the bullish uptrend in pink.
All in all, I think this is the correction Bitcoin needs in preparation for its next move up. In the meantime, all those alts that have been suppressed by Bitcoin's massive run can finally have the weight taken off their shoulders and make runs of their own. I think Ethereum will be leading the way and other alts will follow. So while this correction might be bad for Bitcoin in the short-term, I think it's good news for the rest of the market.
Agree. I don't really get some people's mentality of "price can't go down because institutions are investing". I doubt institutions care if price drops to 35-40k for a few months. If the whales get the opportunity to shake retail and accumulate more coins at a cheaper price I think they will. Especially if bitcoin is going to 100k+ later this year.
dennisp1992
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@Prince_Investments boss talk right there
the.code.sergeant
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Completely agree. This aligns a lot with what I've been seeing too on the daily and weekly chart. I even went as far as to call it the Ghost of FUD past because I foresee its trajectory looking a lot like a H&S pattern with a very round head (which I guess is an Inverse Cup&Handle). The RSI levels on the daily have also been diverging from the peaks, showing the oomph behind each push is getting more and more anemic. I think this last bounce that you labeled with LL and LH is the final bull trap before the HEALTHY correction that BTC needs to have another bull run in the near term future. I've personally exited the BTC market and put my bet on BNB, ETH, ADA, and SOL. We'll see how it goes!
@The.code.sergeant, I'd agree more with you guys if it weren't for what appears to be an insane amount of industry investment in the 40s and 50s. The number of large (8k and larger) BTC OTC accounts created on Coinbase alone in the past ~6 weeks is more than we saw in the 4 years previous combined. This isn't 2017 paperhand retail in my opinion and we need to adjust our expectations as such. I do think some whales/MM want to accumulate more in the 40s so at this point its an interesting battle against the tide of new investment as old hands offload some BTC for profit, others trying to push the floor lower but BTC has show a great deal of resistance to deeper corrections. The last two bottoms at 47k show a lot of support there. I think there is a gap at ~45 so I might consider around 44 to 45 the absolute bottom in the near term. But lower than that seems greedy.
the.code.sergeant
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@misterbumble, Greed always wins. Seasoned institutions don't have the same FOMO mindset that the average investor gets, and will likely wait for indicators to cool down before buying in order to reduce risk. 40k is a nice round target, and it looks like there could be a lot of support there, I agree. I imagine a scenario where they pull out just enough to trigger the margin calls, the bots, and cascade the price downward in a flick of a domino. That allows them to buy in at a discount. Meanwhile, the news will trigger panic, and people who bought at the top will try and save themselves by jumping ship. The smart money will accumulate while it's moving sideways and retail investors are chasing the next DOGE or EGOD coin. Time will tell, though.
jpbrown1023
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@misterbumble, Picking the bottom is always a guessing game. Best bet it to layer your trades at different levels to improve your cost average. Bitcoin never ceases to surprise me so we'll see!
forsakenPaella71696
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will alt coins not follow?
supremetrejdr
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Strong support on 1H maybe, on 1 day its just a straight line