We see in current BTC chart that in 2018 bearmarket, it was not that "quiet" and we had a lot of volatility and bounces. However for the last 10 weeks BTC was in a constant fall without any significant bounce of suuports. I expect the next movements of BTC to be a copy of 2018 bearmarket in a worst case scenario. ~8500$ is not out of cards!
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Imo we may see a pump and dump in the next week based on good and bad news: * War tensions are getting higher. * Russia may start using BTC for transactions * US is in a cyver fight with Russia and needs to claim they will ban Crypto and call for the miners to stop their activity. * In the middle east UAE is attacked every few weeks. Still bearish and will keep my short position open.
My "crazy" price prediction is not that crazy when i consider below: *Microstrategy may be forced by law and SEC to sell +90% of their BTC because of margin calling. They kept borrowing against their BTC and bought back BTC adding to their trust. Price is falling and margin call is around the corner??!! *Regarding the miners, mining 1 BTC costs around 21-24k USD for a miner in USA. Low prices will add more selling pressure to miners whom like MS borrowed against their BTC for expenses to keep their reserves higher. *In addition, the global pandemic + potential wars in eastern Europe and Asia will push BTC as low as 8490$ before summer 2022. *Blackrock filed for a BTC Spot ETF and will take advantage of the BTC price and buys +100k BTC and launch their spot ETF. We always tend to look for the future price tops using TA on the charts, however we can look for the lowest bottoms too.