The market this last week has been a doosy. We have seen manipulation, whip saw action, news, you name it. If you have followed me closely, you will have noticed that SWING trading is my specialty. You may have also noticed that I harp on trading being about RISK management. It's critical. Everyone has trades go against them. EVERYONE. If you haven't, you're gonna. If you don't think you will, you will probably blow up your account. The worst thing to happen to a new trader is they have TOO MANY winning trades so they don't understand how to manage their risk. This next wave down could potentially be a doozy, MAYBE BTC 4k?!?! so you need to manage your risk accordingly.
Here are the technicals. What I currently see:
1. DAILY MACD in Negative Territory and slowly moving down
2. RSI sloping down
3. WEEKLY MACD moving into negative territory
4. Looks like a massive Descending triangle, doesn't it? Not perfect, but we had a lower high, a lower high, another lower high... same psychological type pattern.
The technicals support a move DOWN. The patterns support a move DOWN. So change my mind that we are going to 4k? Wait! Before you do, lets examine a few other things!
1. BTC searches are where they were a year ago! Look at this chart, we have BTC searches spiking in DEC when we hit our all time high, then crashing shortly after. Eeriely close, isn't it?!
g.co/trends/TaSWJ
2. From what i have heard in the "nether" is that new client accounts that are being opened are down. I can't find any direct statistics on this, but if anyone know one way or another, please post.
Tell me why BTC is going up from here, lay out some facts and let's hash it out.
Because right now, BTC is going to 4k. Change my mind.
-Sherem
P.S. What if BTC doesn't go to 4k? Am I terribly wrong? Hopefully all you did was manage your risk accordingly and you still made money! Things I will be looking to the charts to change my mind for me. BTC breaks this trendline and support at 9k. MAJOR news, more search traffic in BTC. But we aren't getting those right now!
My past calls:
Here are the technicals. What I currently see:
1. DAILY MACD in Negative Territory and slowly moving down
2. RSI sloping down
3. WEEKLY MACD moving into negative territory
4. Looks like a massive Descending triangle, doesn't it? Not perfect, but we had a lower high, a lower high, another lower high... same psychological type pattern.
The technicals support a move DOWN. The patterns support a move DOWN. So change my mind that we are going to 4k? Wait! Before you do, lets examine a few other things!
1. BTC searches are where they were a year ago! Look at this chart, we have BTC searches spiking in DEC when we hit our all time high, then crashing shortly after. Eeriely close, isn't it?!
g.co/trends/TaSWJ
2. From what i have heard in the "nether" is that new client accounts that are being opened are down. I can't find any direct statistics on this, but if anyone know one way or another, please post.
Tell me why BTC is going up from here, lay out some facts and let's hash it out.
Because right now, BTC is going to 4k. Change my mind.
-Sherem
P.S. What if BTC doesn't go to 4k? Am I terribly wrong? Hopefully all you did was manage your risk accordingly and you still made money! Things I will be looking to the charts to change my mind for me. BTC breaks this trendline and support at 9k. MAJOR news, more search traffic in BTC. But we aren't getting those right now!
My past calls:
Comment:
If anyone wants a zoomed in view, you can see we are tracking this down trend line. First step on any kind of move to the upside is breaking this. Which thus far we aren't doing. We broke the $8,400 support, moved to 8k right back to just under 8.4k at the technical sell and are moving down again.
Comment:
I have gotten a few questions on my timing of when this would happen. If you look at my arrows the timing on my chart would be late June. This could happen earlier or later, but I would expect it during the summer sometime.
The play is a bounce off of this 7000 area to 8k with appropriate laddered positions. The thing that we DON'T want to see is BTC slowly drifting down towards 7k in a death march. To me, that would indicate we would get more of push past that major support and not a major bounce. The reason being bulls would be exhausted. But, that is more speculation as we would need to see how BTC reacts as it gets closer and how it does it.
The play is a bounce off of this 7000 area to 8k with appropriate laddered positions. The thing that we DON'T want to see is BTC slowly drifting down towards 7k in a death march. To me, that would indicate we would get more of push past that major support and not a major bounce. The reason being bulls would be exhausted. But, that is more speculation as we would need to see how BTC reacts as it gets closer and how it does it.
Comment:
We are breaking this minor trendline to the upside. Enough to change my mind long term? No. Enough to say we might get more of a move to the upside? Maybe.... ? But, we are also hitting these MA's and EMA's, this minor support zone. Not really convincing for me with volume like this on a Sunday afternoon
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correction * minor resistance zone that was support*. Also, the maybe move would be to 8750?
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If we zoom in we can see it's coming back to this 8400 support level and minor up trendline support line. If this fails, we will be going down sooner. If it holds it could march up.
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Oh what do you know, we are breaking down. No surprise for me! Just a matter of time before we break 8k.
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We have consolidated around this area a bit. The question is what are we doing now? Rebounding a little or just forming a bear flag? hmmm...
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Quick update on a new thread :
