Price is still in range consolidation between $8,400 - $10,200. Right above $10,000 there are also resistance levels at $11,000 & $14,000. This means any aggressive buying at this price range isn't the best way to trade. If you have followed my previous long term calls and still hold positions from $7k, we have nothing to worry about.
Price has consolidated in the current range for longer than expected. In a situation like this, I am leaning slightly (60%) towards a continuation price actions. This means there is a possibility to complete the bigger pattern on the @ roughly $13,000 - $14,000.
On the daily timeframe
Although I am leaning towards continuation of upside, we can't ignore the possibility of fake breakdown first similar to what happened to GBPUSD (ie. a breakdown of recent support followed by , then break above the neckline of the ). If this happens, it would be a very good opportunity to buy with clear stop loss level, and a change of momentum.
On the 4hr timeframe (as shown in the main chart)
Clear downtrend line has emerged. If market can break above the , it can be an opportunity for us to go long. However, there are 3 conditions that need to be satisfied:
1. Need to hold & consolidate above $9150 and push towards the
2. Breakout candle should be decisive (but not too big otherwise rr is not ideal)
3. Buy on pullback
The target and instructions of how to move SL are both shown on the chart.
And guys, please, if you can't be bothered to read, don't tell me that I have no idea about trading. You are more than welcomed to ask me questions in the comments below and I am happy to answer them.
One can be wrong, but don't lose anything.
One can be right, but don't win anything.
If trade idea is never validated, it means that I never incur a loss. If you have followed me for some time, you know that I always tell you when I got stopped out. Anyhow, stay safe guys.
I have been trading for more than 30 years, all kinds of different exchanges and instruments and I have never ever seen a market which is so manipulated and rigged as BTC ! It is incredible ! The charts from the past months tell the story. It has nothing to do with more buyers or sellers , finding a price balance etc, etc, that is bs!
Ever since the BTC future was introduced BTC trading changed , it has become controllable . And it is being controlled because less cash money is required to do so thanks to futures trading.
Think about it: Will governments allow an instruments to develop, which gains international attraction, absorbs huge investment capital and which eventually poses a threat to their sovereignty and control over their financial system? Of course not! Since they could not control it they introduced future trading and suddenly the game changes.
The chart shows that the performance has nothing to do with TA, fundamentals, sentiment, momentum, patterns, ma’s, fractals,….. etc , etc. You can analyze as much as you want , all analysis over the past months from all technical analysts is wrong and only occasionally right because it is being controlled by interests groups. Sooner or later the market will make a move and of course some smart ass analyst will claim: „ see I told you so…I am sooo smart , bla bla bla“ but it will move because it was decided somewhere else and not buy us , the average traders or investors. Good luck!
It isn't about TA being useless in the past months, it is due to BTC is in a consolidation phase, which professional traders all understand it's not the best time to trade.
I have been consistent with some decent gains in the past, so I have to disagree what you just said
do you mind to elaborate what you meant about volume?
The way I use indicators are a bit different to other traders. Volume, as well.
Plan your trade, trade your plan :) And risk manage !