Taiwan_Bear

BTC multi timeframe analysis

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
On the weekly timeframe

Price is still in range consolidation between $8,400 - $10,200. Right above $10,000 there are also resistance levels at $11,000 & $14,000. This means any aggressive buying at this price range isn't the best way to trade. If you have followed my previous long term calls and still hold positions from $7k, we have nothing to worry about.

Price has consolidated in the current range for longer than expected. In a situation like this, I am leaning slightly (60%) towards a bullish continuation price actions. This means there is a possibility to complete the bigger AB=CD pattern on the weekly timeframe @ roughly $13,000 - $14,000.

On the daily timeframe

Although I am leaning towards continuation of upside, we can't ignore the possibility of fake breakdown first similar to what happened to GBPUSD (ie. a breakdown of recent support followed by double bottom , then break above the neckline of the double bottom ). If this happens, it would be a very good opportunity to buy with clear stop loss level, and a change of momentum.

On the 4hr timeframe (as shown in the main chart)
Clear downtrend line has emerged. If market can break above the trendline , it can be an opportunity for us to go long. However, there are 3 conditions that need to be satisfied:
1. Need to hold & consolidate above $9150 and push towards the trendline
2. Breakout candle should be decisive (but not too big otherwise rr is not ideal)
3. Buy on pullback

The target and instructions of how to move SL are both shown on the chart.

And guys, please, if you can't be bothered to read, don't tell me that I have no idea about trading. You are more than welcomed to ask me questions in the comments below and I am happy to answer them.

One can be wrong, but don't lose anything.
One can be right, but don't win anything.

If trade idea is never validated, it means that I never incur a loss. If you have followed me for some time, you know that I always tell you when I got stopped out. Anyhow, stay safe guys.
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Comments

While technical analysis is valuable and interesting it sometimes reaches its limits . BTC these months is just the perfect example.
I have been trading for more than 30 years, all kinds of different exchanges and instruments and I have never ever seen a market which is so manipulated and rigged as BTC ! It is incredible ! The charts from the past months tell the story. It has nothing to do with more buyers or sellers , finding a price balance etc, etc, that is bs!
Ever since the BTC future was introduced BTC trading changed , it has become controllable . And it is being controlled because less cash money is required to do so thanks to futures trading.

Think about it: Will governments allow an instruments to develop, which gains international attraction, absorbs huge investment capital and which eventually poses a threat to their sovereignty and control over their financial system? Of course not! Since they could not control it they introduced future trading and suddenly the game changes.

The chart shows that the performance has nothing to do with TA, fundamentals, sentiment, momentum, patterns, ma’s, fractals,….. etc , etc. You can analyze as much as you want , all analysis over the past months from all technical analysts is wrong and only occasionally right because it is being controlled by interests groups. Sooner or later the market will make a move and of course some smart ass analyst will claim: „ see I told you so…I am sooo smart , bla bla bla“ but it will move because it was decided somewhere else and not buy us , the average traders or investors. Good luck!
+5 Reply
@Snead, I really don't get why people saying BTC is so manipulated when every market is just the same. Look at SPX, AUDUSD, Gold in the past year or 2.

It isn't about TA being useless in the past months, it is due to BTC is in a consolidation phase, which professional traders all understand it's not the best time to trade.

I have been consistent with some decent gains in the past, so I have to disagree what you just said
+5 Reply
Sage101 Taiwan_Bear
@Taiwan_Bear, dude don't compare them, BTC is crypto, compare crypto with other cryptocurrencies not Fiat currencies
Reply
GunMoney Taiwan_Bear
@Taiwan_Bear, every single financial market is manipulated. I don't see why that's so hard for other people to understand LOL There are professional JPMorgan traders in jail as we speak for spoofing gold and silver markets LOL. "Manipulation" isn't a "bad" word either. When the feds pump money into the markets, expansion of monetary base, that's "manipulation too. If "Bitcoin is so manipulated" then why aren't these fools shouting about it not making a boat-load because of it.....
Reply
Wow, weekly chart changes a lot! thanks for that insight. When you get stuck on dailies, you overlook bigger consolidations. Still, if you take volume into account, I think we are heading down to 8800 at least. On the other hand, MACD is showing good sign and we did clear that pesky 50 MA. So It's 50/50 for me. Great analysis!
+3 Reply
Taiwan_Bear flux7777
@flux7777,

do you mind to elaborate what you meant about volume?
Reply
flux7777 Taiwan_Bear
RSI seemed pretty overbought on daily, no? Also, if you look at daily patterns, the previous big false breakout showed the exact same volume pattern over 4 bars as this one.
Reply
Taiwan_Bear flux7777
@flux7777,

The way I use indicators are a bit different to other traders. Volume, as well.
Reply
flux7777 Taiwan_Bear
@Taiwan_Bear, I know that :) have been following you. Anyway, I'm playing it safe until break or dump. Market neutral Short/Long. Saving USDT for dump, longing some cointegrated coins for break. Hope for the best, plan for the worst, right? Cheers bro!
Reply
Taiwan_Bear flux7777
@flux7777,

Plan your trade, trade your plan :) And risk manage !
Reply
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