BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I'm an amateur. I started this journey December 26th, 2017 at 5:06 PM.
Yep, I bought (damn near) the top.
Yep, I've lost a lot of money.
I've learned a bit. Have you?

Take a look at 2014. Anything look familiar?
Not one person to my knowledge has spotted this.
Not saying this is GONNA happen.
Just saying that it can and probably will. :^)
Buyer beware.

One more thing.


Okay, I promise, one mor...err, 2 more things. 4 actually.

Bitcoin dumps 12% in 5 hours.
Short fill anyone!!?

Not as bad of one THIS time :^)


BTW. Keep an eye on the 1H RSI . She ain't lookin healthy.

Last thing. Promise.

Just a fun little mental gymnastic for you.
What day is Tuesday? Specifically, what is the DATE of Tuesday?
I'll give you a hint. Fibonacci! :-)
I'll say that one more time.


I just thought I'd throw this idea out there to see how much controversy it can stir up. ;-)
Let's hope I'm wrong.

If you really want to get weird, check this out. FULL DEETS on a $1k BTC here:
(Idea is not finished yet. Came up with this while under a concussion. Dunno if I'll finish it tbh.)


-Salesman OUT
Comment: Pretty high chance this is my very last idea.
TradingView is manipulating what is being seen on the front page of BTCUSD.
I’ve been a front page author since the day I started up until very recently. Only less than one handful of my ideas never made it to front. Yet at this point I legitimately can’t even find this idea or my last one anywhere on the site.
Very recently my comments on others charts were ‘moderated’ for about a week and a half where I would post a comment but it would be pending a moderators approval in order to be seen. This started coincidentally immediately after I had shared my $1k Bitcoin idea for the first time in public view. It also happened at the same time as the front page algorithm being changed to show very old ideas.
I can’t say I’m angry at TradingView, but I will say I’m incredibly disappointed. Doing analysis and seeing it on the front page was one of the main reasons I ever did it.

At this point I am highly considering no longer posting ideas. TradingView is legit garbage.
Comment: Last things I will be putting in this idea for a while:

I can't describe how I see this. It's unexplainable to me. All I know is, it's there.
I am 100% positive we are either in a B wave, or even potentially a 2nd corrective wave upwards for a very very bumpy 5-wave EWT ride downward.
The idea is old as dirt, but it somewhat conveys what I see.

We are going to goblin town whether you/I like it or not. Maybe not right now. Maybe not next year, but I assure you, we're going to goblin town.
Comment: Hmmm...
Comment: Okay so. Umm. I just realized something.

This was an ENORMOUS move.
To the dollar. AGAIN.
Dafaq bro rly?

So by the way. I’m muted. Can’t respond to comments.

...silenced. ;)
To the dollar.
Comment: Literal art.
Comment: Bitcoin really needs to get back in this wedge..
Comment: TradingView seriously needs to get their act together.
My account has gone from “Message will be shown after moderation” to normal, back and forth, like 3-5 times now. Literally right before I went to sleep I was able to comment on ideas yet as of now I cannot again. Rly?
How do I keep getting flagged by the ‘anti spam’ measure?
For those unaware, I post comments on this site but only sporadically. So if it takes me some time to respond to your comment that is why.
This is infuriatingly annoying.
Comment: Just throwing this out there from a friend:

I still think we may have higher to go on this rally, but one cannot deny the similarities here. I’m short on low leverage at the moment and have adds just below and above $10k. What happens if we get to that point will determine Bitcoin’s mid-term future in my opinion.

That said, there’s a decent chance you could be staring at the very top of this rally right now.
In 2014 Bitcoin rallied just SLIGHTLY above the .382. This would be perfect for 2019 for a $10k wick.
And to anyone who says I keep adjusting my ‘top’, please see my very first original idea on the subject shown below. $10k is and has been my magical number.
Technically speaking, Bitcoin may still rally to $12k and it would still be in the confines of a bear market rally.
Until I see the .618 from $19,666 to $3,120 closed above with force, this is nothing more than a B wave bear market rally in my eyes. Please keep in mind though, I am an amateur and fully expect to be wrong on such a call. I don't mind being wrong. Being wrong makes me learn.

Comment: Last update for now:
On the hourly at least, Bitcoin has fallen out of an ascending wedge in the RSI with a recent re-test for resistance at around $9,315. Former support has now confirmed as resistance. I expect that there will likely be multiple attempts at climbing back above this prior support.

The 6h also shows a possibly grim picture. Notice the lighter colored trend line in the RSI. It was a strong support for this entire rally. It has also now broken support.

Bitcoin is also dangerously close to falling back into the bear flag it so powerfully rallied out of.
Look for the 6h RSI to re-test this bull trendline and possibly confirm it as resistance. That is where I will be looking to add slightly to my short.

Be very careful what you do next as the weekly candle looms in the background today. Best of luck. PM me if you'd like to chat as I cannot reply to comments due to the ineptitude of the people behind this site.
Just putting this here for later.
To everyone in my comment section- I truly wish I could reply but I cannot due to TradingView being on cocaine. Whenever/if I get a chance to actually comment again I will.
Comment: Zee R S I does not lie

Comment: I am noticing that after breaking out of a daily bear flag, Bitcoin may be printing an ascending triangle with a target just under $10k. Keep an eye on this.
Comment: I have a feeling this may be how she goes..
Comment: Just putting this here for later in the event this ascending triangle is actually valid:

“I am noticing that after breaking out of a daily bear flag, Bitcoin may be printing an ascending triangle with a target just under $10k. Keep an eye on this.”

This may be Bitcoin’s final rally. Fib retracement from the dump we experienced yesterday just below $9k to what I believe to be the first sub wave of this next/final rally shows these targets:

Notice how $9,969 is one of those targets? Possibly, THE target?
y e e t
2.618 hit. What happens next?
Comment: Say byebye to BTC
Comment: Fair warning, $11.6k is in the cards. I believe that what a chance to be our final high for the 5th subwave of the 5th wave on the daily. I’ll post later why, can’t show it very well on mobile but the easy explanation is that on Bitmex, $11.6k is the 50% FIB of ATH to current bottom.
I just recently realized the 5-3-5 I’ve been suspecting from ATH has already completed. 5 down $20k/$6k, 3 up $6k/$11.7k, 5 down $11.7k/$3k. That wave however, could just simply be an A wave, and if this is a B wave as I indeed suspect, then we are looking at a 5-3-5 for B wave as well. That said, we are finalizing by my count a 5th subwave of a 5th wave. If that is indeed correct then that means the A subwave of the B primary is complete or very near complete. Then we have a substantial retrace to re-test bottom, and then and ONLY then will we find out if we are in a bull run or not. The way this looks on the daily and weekly, one way to gather an idea of whether this is a B wave rally or a new ATH forming is to watch for how violent the correction is and what fib retracement it stops on. B waves are violently fast, and if this IS simply a B wave forming then I’d expect a catastrophically fast correction downward for the B subwave. If this current rally is simply the A subwave of the upwards B, then the B subwave of B will be violent and the percentage lost will be upwards of 60-80%.
If my knowledge checks out, then we should not break below $5k at any point hereafter if we are in a bullrun. Any break below that and you can kiss the bull run hopes and dreams goodbye.
Please remember I am an amateur and these are only my thoughts.
Comment: To get an idea of what I mean, see here:

Magic’s A subwave would be 5 waves. The B would be 3 and the C would be 5.
Though, I do see a higher low holding and not quite $3k immediately off the bat. His ABC would technically be the B subwave of the primary B wave. This would create a very slightly higher low, then we rally again for the final 5-3-5 subwave C of the primary B wave.
The more I think of it the more I begin to realize we may have indeed already topped out at $11.2k for this rally. I guess we will see in coming weeks but if indeed we are in a B wave bear market rally then the timeline of it takin place would be right in line with a catastrophic fall to new lows later this year.

Here are your levels to watch for bear season.
From the high of ~$14k, Bitcoin completed an ABC flat correction, or 3-3-5.
Technically speaking, if we were going to break our current high at least any time soon, we should have done it on the August rally I believe. After the ABC flat, Bitcoin rallied to around $12,320 on an ABC retracement and was stopped in its tracks. This tells me we are beginning a bear impulse down.

The targets I have outlined are based on speculative Elliott Wave theory but I believe will be accurate and will yield very strong bounces. The main target for now lies around $7.4k. Beyond that, if my intuition is correct, $4.4k and $1.5k are my main targets. It will take some time to get there, but believe me, we WILL get there.

In the grand macro scheme I believe Bitcoin is soon about to begin a major 5 wave impulse down.
Please keep in mind I am still very much an amateur in this market and could end up very wrong.

I am keeping a somewhat close eye on the chart to see how it develops.
We have already had an ABC retracement from ATH ending at $3.1k, so it is entirely possible that we are indeed in a new bull run. Though, according to my limited knowledge on Elliott Wave theory, if we do end up in a bull run it should be very brief in my opinion and we will not be seeing the $50k, $100k+ price points the moon boys are shouting out. This new bull run would likely put us in a 5th subwave of an extended 3rd wave at BEST. I am bear bias however so we will see how it plays out.

This will be my last update for a while. I am sure most of you have realized by now that my TradingView account has been deactivated. There are a lot of not so nice people that have been stalking, harassing, and subliminally communicating with me and I'm getting tired of it.
Especially because there is only one person who semi believes what I have been saying. The rest think I am suffering from psychosis or some form of paranoid schizophrenia. I know better.

My Reddit account has also been deleted as I've noticed quite a bit of subliminal messages in the Crypto subreddits I was consistently visiting. Especially lots of grammatical errors that annoy the living shit out of me. Who knows- maybe that's just exactly how this market moves. People see the messages and act on them. I don't know, and anyone I've gotten these 'hints' or subliminal 'messages' from act like they just made mistakes in the way they type, etc. Not one person is willing to talk about it. So am I being trolled because I'm weak as dirt, or is there really something I am seeing that needs to remain secret? I don't know because I have nobody to talk to about it.

I would really love to hear from some of you, so feel free to reach out and send a message if you would like to talk. Especially if you have any kind of advice on what I should do next.

I really do not want to give this up, but I feel for my mental sanity I may have no choice.
It's been a wild ride.


Yes, the uptrend is very strong, we trade according to the trend.
But if Bitcoin unfolds, the fall will also be very strong. Agree with you .
did you notice ...

depending on how you draw fibs... we've hit .0618 almost deadcenter
"Not one person to my knowledge has spotted this" I'v been saying this since my 1st D1 BTC idea, I'm pretty sure you have seen my analysis on BTC as you have commented on them! LOL
+2 Reply
Boon2 Boon2
@Boon2, over 8mth back I posted that 1st idea and my D1 analysis hasn't changed on my 2nd D1 idea.

Its just no, cost of production, halving's? Look it up.
deactivatedaccount123 ruraldisturbance
@ruraldisturbance, Cost of production is much much lower than you may think. DYOR
Really looking forward to what's going to be the next step(s)
+1 Reply
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