Hello, friends and fellow traders!
Long time no use this platform, though I never stopped trading. I was there when the crypto market saw the top, didn't sell until March 2018, but enough of my personal history--let's see Bitcoin's price history, as what happened in the past provides us with the only way to get a grasp of the present. Here are the previous market extremes:
$30 in June 2011, followed by 93% loss till $2,
$1.1k in December 2013, followed by 86% loss till $160,
$20k in December 2017, subsequent downtrend ongoing.
There are other oft-cited "major" tops and bottoms but the above three are the only significant historical determinative turning points. Now, the fact that the $20k-top is the third one is frightening if one believes in Elliott Wave theory, because it'd mean that the ongoing downtrend will continue to devastate. However, we won't make any such comment before analyzing what happened in the period seen in the chart, which spans the second big rally.
As you see, most of the stuff happens in one monthly candle, which is halted at around a grand per coin. The ollowing retracement is so deep and long, whose ending formation (the double bottom at $160) took 8 months to complete. The double bottom didn't break until November 2018, but when it broke, it broke decisively, and formed a very healthy basis for the bull run. Today we are still far above these levels, and most importantly above those two important lines:
1) the top at $1.1k
2) the trend line formed after the 2014 bottom.
These observations will give us the necessary insight for analyzing what is happening today, and where we are headed to.
I hope to continue the analysis with more recent price action, please follow & like to get me motivated <3
Long time no use this platform, though I never stopped trading. I was there when the crypto market saw the top, didn't sell until March 2018, but enough of my personal history--let's see Bitcoin's price history, as what happened in the past provides us with the only way to get a grasp of the present. Here are the previous market extremes:
$30 in June 2011, followed by 93% loss till $2,
$1.1k in December 2013, followed by 86% loss till $160,
$20k in December 2017, subsequent downtrend ongoing.
There are other oft-cited "major" tops and bottoms but the above three are the only significant historical determinative turning points. Now, the fact that the $20k-top is the third one is frightening if one believes in Elliott Wave theory, because it'd mean that the ongoing downtrend will continue to devastate. However, we won't make any such comment before analyzing what happened in the period seen in the chart, which spans the second big rally.
As you see, most of the stuff happens in one monthly candle, which is halted at around a grand per coin. The ollowing retracement is so deep and long, whose ending formation (the double bottom at $160) took 8 months to complete. The double bottom didn't break until November 2018, but when it broke, it broke decisively, and formed a very healthy basis for the bull run. Today we are still far above these levels, and most importantly above those two important lines:
1) the top at $1.1k
2) the trend line formed after the 2014 bottom.
These observations will give us the necessary insight for analyzing what is happening today, and where we are headed to.
I hope to continue the analysis with more recent price action, please follow & like to get me motivated <3
Comment:
The previous snapshot didn't appear for some reason. Let me try once more:
So these two long-term trend lines create three zones, seen in the chart as Zone I, II, and III. Before any hasty conclusion, traders must first acknowledge that we are still in the Zone I. I hear a lot of grievances from both experienced and novice traders which go like 'if bitcoin goes to this level, it means it's dead." Indeed, as long as there's a new block in 10 minutes, it means it's still kicking, and is worthy as an instrument to trade, not to mention its value outside the realm of making money out of money.
Anyways, we are still in the Zone I, and all analyses must bear this fact in mind. If we fall to the Zone II, then the character of our analysis would change. Likewise, if the market goes to the Zone III, it would require a different kind of treatment. Now, all we can say is that the 2017 frenzy is over, and the price is declining to 'normal' levels.