Bitcoin Channels Postponing the Drop

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Previous analysis i showed the big bearish wedge on Bitcoin and the smaller wedge being the retest of the bigger one. So far it has been playing out but we have only seen small moves up till now. The channel with the red lines is what i showed a few days ago, which caused that small bear trap move. The blue line channel is something that could certainly still be a back up plan for the bulls, if we don't see any big, fast volume drops below 6400ish.

Now i have also drawn that black trend line , which seems to be very important as well. Because the red AND the black line, seem to be the reason to why Bitcoin is still holding it's ground here around 6800. So i think there are 2 scenario's here.

1) Bear flag , we stay below the 6950ish and we make a drop towards 6500/6400. This version, could mean the blue line channel could play out.
2) We break up from the bear flag but make a lower high below that small trend line , so a max of around 6950. If this plays out and we drop towards the 6400ish, i don't think that channel will give the bulls any real support. So in other words, if this version plays out, big chance we break 6400 and we drop much more.

Think if we break the 7050ish, in theory we could drop again if that blue line channel doesn't break, but i would guess that it's only a formality to break the channel if 7050ish would break.

So still a lot that can happen at this point, because i still believe we are doing a top formation here past 3 weeks, but it's difficult to know when it will end. For the bears it's very important to see a significant drop with high volume . So would say the bears need a 500/600 point drop withing a few hours or so. Because anything much smaller and same volume as past weeks, can easily again turn into a bear trap.

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Previous analysis:

Comment: The shape of the bear flag on the right is almost perfection, but when looking at the volume its actually the opposite. On the right we can also see a small parabolic shape. So once again, we can see that games are being played here, which makes the short term quite difficult to predict.

So scenario 2 might be in play here, unless that parabolic shape breaks. It really does look to be legit. As you can see it took 60 point drop, below parabolic line and out of nowhere it got pushed up 140 points both within 2 min. So to me it says there is like a fight going on. Or the whales are not done distributing (or if i am wrong, accumulating).

By the way, above in scenario 2 i say: "so a max of around 6950", that has to be 7050

Comment: Several touches of that parabolic shape since my last update, so it was real, but can't say it really helped with anything. At the moment we can see there is a bigger one on the left as well. The bear flag is out of play now, hanging to long at the high, could even say it broke above it. So it seems once again noise is taking over.

Think the parabolic shape on the left is something to keep a close eye one, because things could turn around completely if that breaks. Until then, this are and up to 7050ish, is all noise/neutral to me.

Stock market was dumping yesterday, Bitcoin held it's ground very well. Now stock market has been moving up, Bitcoin has followed. So that is becoming less useful as well, since it's becoming random now.

The longer it takes for the market to drop again coming hours/days, think momentum might be shifting towards the bulls again

Comment: Adjusted the parabolic shape a little bit again, assuming this pump started at the touch of the line again. Also reached this resistance level (of scenario 2), so think an important moment now. If we break above it, don't know what could happen, don't wanna say yet we turn bull, but bearish version simply become less likely. Unless we see something form again after a few hours/days.

The parabolic shape is maybe the Key thing to watch now. Many times they eventually break and we see a move to the other side. But, lets say like 30% of the times, we see it break, but see sideways movement. If that would happen, would mean bulls are prob in full control. Looks as if the low is around 7000ish at the moment, but the more time passes, the higher that level becomes.

So far no immediate rejection, so bulls are strong now it seems.

Comment: So far bulls still seem to be in control here. Looks like another small bull flag is being made. Stock market is holding its ground as well at the moment. Where the Dow could even retest 23800, this could cause bitcoin to rally some more it that would happen.

As you can see in the left, that channel resistance line could stop the rally around 7200ish, but would be a third test, so don’t know it that will happen. Think as long as we don’t see an immediate rejection from the bears, have to assume bulls are in control.

So maybe even that line on the right, might be the last option bears have left. Because if 7200ish breaks and we break out of that channel, my whole bearish view is probably ready to get flushed through the toilet


update please
Great Analysis David! Can you take a look at my chart please!

you made good analysis) it's my btc analysis
it's gambling
@botje11 consider opening a discord server for open discussion and idea sharing if you're interested in creating a community.
+1 Reply
botje11 ThePhoenix137
@ThePhoenix137, More people told me to use Discord instead of Telegram. On my website, i had plans to have a big forum, to actually do what you just suggest. I will ask my website guy what is better, directly on my website or through Discord.
Thank you for an update David! Myself I still think this will drop hard when we get 2nd wave down in the stock market. Which might come this/next week
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