Based on Elliott Wave analysis and what's determined to be the most likely outcome for Wave 4, I suspect that we're currently in the 1st of 3 phases for the total completion of the Wave 4 correction.
Typically, a primary Wave 4 will retrace down towards the zone of the previous sub-wave 4 (aka Wave 4 of primary Wave 3). In Bitcoin's case, Wave 4 of Primary 3 is near or slightly under 40K.
With Primary Wave 2 being a sharp correction, Wave 4 will be what's called a 'sideways' type of move. As in, the correction takes plenty of time and does not make sudden, descending moves; not at all once anyway.
A flat correction consists of a 3-3-5 wave sequence. We're likely in the first 3 wave sequence with (A) being a running flat. Should B wave not break the highest point of Wave A, we can fully expect more correction down to the C Wave target range, near or directly below 40K.
Stay woke :)
Trade active
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Because there are 3 types of flats, I've outlined the fib levels for the B and C waves of each type (regular, running and extended). Extended Flats are the most common but either are technically a possibility.
Based on the location of the sub-wave for Wave 4 of the 3rd wave, I'm still guessing we'll get an Extended Flat here near 40K.
This will probably happen next month or in a few months. If you do long term swing trades waiting to buy for a few months is probably a good idea but there is no guarantee it will get to these levels with all the large institutional interest. Things are different. If you day trade, we could STILL rip up now or fall to 56k and rip up to 70k before anything your graph plays out. There is still a lot of bullishness.
DigitalSurfTrading
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@jayd603, sure, nothing is guaranteed or promised but i haven't heard of much institutional buying (at least in the past 2 weeks). I could be wrong about the recent institutional buying but the correction should play out; if not this formation then some other correction to the same zone.
mrsceleste
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Institutional interest could mean selling to buy at lower levels. A smarter money move. Check point
1BigPapi
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@jayd603, I'll at least agree on one point- this is a little harder to predict. I think Gumption has the right idea, we are in a corrective pattern and a bigger drop is coming, but man if the media and general bullish sentiment isn't incredibly stubborn over the past month also. I was thinking we'd break up to a new top/ATH and then correct to ~40k, but I honestly don't think we have enough juice to break resistance at 60k right now.