If we look at the Daily Chart, BTC has created this Divergence on the RSI and the MACD is just itching to cross to the downside. We have been slow to move up. Because of this I am in cash and do not have a position. Depending on what is said at the SEC hearing, we could see this rocket down. if we get MACD confirmation and a break of this trendline you could short it.
We are in this massive channel, between 6.5k and 11.5k. Risk to reward to take a long swing position is just not there IMO. We basically have a 10-15% upside potential before hitting resistance with an almost 40-50% downside potential. It could be argued that we broke this down trendline so we are just going to move up, but I would remind you that everyone that bought in that 6.5k-7k area has made a lot of money and we are in this massive channel.
2 scenarios to look for if BTC is going to dah moon:
1. This channel has to be broken to the upside.
2. We have a correction to this 7k area and continue to move to the upside. This would confirm that we are creating a "lower high" and would provide more of a case to break the 11.5k
There will be plenty of break out plays if we continue to march up so I am not worried about missing anything. But right now it's hard to justify taking a long position in front of a potentially large move down with crappy Risk vs reward. The hardest thing to do is sit on your hands, but that's what I will be doing right now.
Happy Trading,
Sherem
We are in this massive channel, between 6.5k and 11.5k. Risk to reward to take a long swing position is just not there IMO. We basically have a 10-15% upside potential before hitting resistance with an almost 40-50% downside potential. It could be argued that we broke this down trendline so we are just going to move up, but I would remind you that everyone that bought in that 6.5k-7k area has made a lot of money and we are in this massive channel.
2 scenarios to look for if BTC is going to dah moon:
1. This channel has to be broken to the upside.
2. We have a correction to this 7k area and continue to move to the upside. This would confirm that we are creating a "lower high" and would provide more of a case to break the 11.5k
There will be plenty of break out plays if we continue to march up so I am not worried about missing anything. But right now it's hard to justify taking a long position in front of a potentially large move down with crappy Risk vs reward. The hardest thing to do is sit on your hands, but that's what I will be doing right now.
Happy Trading,
Sherem
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If you are looking for more of the WHY behind the SEC hearing, check out this thread and earlier cartel manipulation post:
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Keep a close eye on this $9,500 level and trend line.
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We are starting to confirm a down move. Another daily red candle should confirm it. There is support at this 9k level, and once we break this we are going down further, at least 8k. Your short entry point is on any rebound like around 9500. Traders like Vera are already short if you want to check her chart out.
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Chart update. We are making lower lows on the smaller time frames. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a slight push up before we resume down but this 9k area you need to watch. Once we crack that mark you can look for further downside potential.
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We are knocking on this 9k mark, should chop its way through it and march down.
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Chart update:
