botje11
Long

Bitcoin to 12K, i cracked the SPOOFY system! Read the update :)

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
After writing about spoofy for several months now in many of my trading updates, i finally cracked the system and earned almost 250 points in 10 minutes because i just knew a move was about to happen. I have been thinking about it many many times, but because i am not always able to follow the order book at Bitfinex a took a while before i could build up a theory and put it to my own advantage. Even though i got mixed signals at the moment i went long, because i followed my theory and gut feeling. Of course this is only 1 part of the strategies spoofy uses. I have been fooled several times the first few months i saw it, the last few months i not let it influence me anymore. Now it was the first time i took advantage of it's manipulation strategies.

If you read my previous chart analysis of Bitcoin , you can see what i was writing live, while it was happening and what i predicted it would do next during the many updates i wrote.


Comment: First target now should be around 11600, target of that big triangle.
Comment: It should stay above the 11350 now to reach the 11600 within the hour. For the short term bull move to stay in play, it should stay above the 11.200
Comment: And again, big dumpin of BTC at 11500, where the market clearly wants to break out, one would be a fool to sell there and not 100 points higher. So there just has to be another motive. The way i see it, it's the one i mentioned earlier: being able to lower the risk withtou pushing the market down
Comment: For the extreme bullish sentiment to stay strong, it has to stay above this green support level
Comment: Looks like it's weakening, probably retest the 11200. Than one should hold, otherwise we could see a drop towards the 10800/10500. I am still flat for now
Comment: So the 11.600 target (of the big triangle) was reache, we could be seeing a bigger drop now, it's hanging on a support, could be bouncing off it but i think chances are bigger that we drop towards the 10800
Comment: These controlled moves Bitcoin has been making, from the 8K levels and up, just like it did here. Anyway, dropped through support level now, could be making a bigger rising triangle.

Comment: So it was a bigger rising triangle as i mentioned. Something i have been seeing many times since the break out of the 9K.

I am a bit surprised that the break out of Bitcoin is not really being shared by other coins, the last few days, with the exception of a few. That means for me that the hype engine is still not the same as it was. On top of that, i am not sure yet, but i think i see a bigger rising wedge developing from the 10.200 low, so we will probably see another move towards the 12K target, and from that point i think we are going to see a correction towards the low 10K. But for now it's just a guess, a plan i am already preparing and if it turns out that way, i will be prepared for it.
Comment: Something like this, if we going to see a fast (so short in time) correction to that support line again and than a slower rise towards the 12.000, than i will start to build up a big short position as it goes towards the 12K. First confirmation is a drop to that support line, if that happens i will probably build up my short positions from the 11.700 level
Comment: To be clear, i am still flat and i will probably wont do anything until it reaches the 12K. Unless i see an easy pattern to make a small trade on. For now, the risks are way to high to go long and the market looks way to strong to short it :)
Comment: I am going to short it now, making a small rising wedge. Short it at 11720
Comment: 2 options, it just gonna break upwards and accelerate (seen it several times) or a small drop towards that support line. Close stop of around 100 points
Comment: False move of the wedge is confirmed, target around that green area, depends on how greedy this market is at the moment
Comment: It almost looked like a perfect trade, or it manipulated, or the market is extremely strong that it wont even allow a small correction of 200 points. Stop is in place, but looking less good for my position now, even though it's still a small profit


Comment: If i look at XRP, BCH ETH and a few other of the most popular Alts, they all have a short term bearish outlook. None of them could get above the previous high like BTC did. This is seriously a sign we cannot ignore. You can look it up because i posted an analysis about a few of them. But like i said, short term, the medium term is stil very bullish for all!
Comment: Whoop there it is :) effects of a wedge. Good judgement call again, I am almost certain it was just a distribution fase at the top. I did not expect I drop this fast, but it’s welcome of course. Like I mentioned before, the major alts were already showing the way (sentiment), for the short term
Comment: Now we could just be moving up again, like nothing happened, and probably will! Because spoofy and his team have most probably unloaded most of their bitcoin at the 11.700, so now they have more than enough ammunition to slowly and steadily push it higher again towards the 12k.

Summary, they stole people’s money again and they will play the same song again for the next few days. And the funny thing is, nobody knows and probably don’t even care! White collar thief’s and there is nobody stopping them!
Comment: I just went long at 10940
Comment: No real bounce, looking very weak, stop around 10800. Looking more and more like this is already the move towards the low 10k I was talking about
Comment: I think bitcoin is making an attempt to make an even bigger inverse h&s, now making the right shoulder with the bottom around 10.000 probably, could be lower, could be higher. So chances increase that even if we drop more now, we will probably still see the 11.500/12.000 again
Comment: I jumped out at 11100, jumped back in now at 11000. think it will make a big bearish flag, so probably another wave up if it gets around above the 11200 again, I will use a trailing stop, because it would not be the first time a bearish flag just keeps getting bigger and higher :)
Comment: Remember this beautiful picture, if I was right there, we should see another wave up. But why I have doubts now, because the sell off was to fast and to much. But it could still happen, that’s why I will use a trailing stop

Comment: First obstacle
Comment: I have moved my stop to a few points below my entry level of 11.000
Comment: When we look at this picture, seeing Bitcoin has been making many identical patterns. We should drop a few hundred points more. That other drop was 11000 points, this one should bring is towards 10.600 and maybe even slightly lower. I will probably turn short if the 10950 breaks
Comment: These are my levels now for the day trade
Comment: There we go
Comment: Probably go to 10450
Comment: I closed half at 10720
Comment: I have added at 10860
Comment: This should be the final upswing before it drops again. Unless the rescue squad comes in early :) LOL. I have my stop around 11.000
Comment: A double bottom around 10700 is something to keep in mind
Comment: So the double bottom is what it became. I am having another look at the chart, i think i have missed something. Looks like Bitcoin is only making a pullback (retrace whatever) to the big uptrend line from the 6K low. WHat raised my eyebrow at first, is the fact that it could not maintain the H&S from the lows this morning, went through the nekline, but still got back below again. The market is weakening, loosing momentum i think. This could all be just short term, but i always try to take all option into account.
Comment:
Comment: Posted a new chart
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You think they are sucking all the money out of the alts and will eventually just cash out and bring the whole market down for months? =D p.s. What is your SL? I went along, too at $10,930.
Reply
botje11 mightytrader
@mightytrader, I had my stop around 10800, but I am out already. I think, that they think :) the only thing that matters, is that the bitcoin price goes up and stays up. As long as that happens, new money will come into these markets, and if alts become cheaper, even better, than people can buy everything with a ‘discount’. For the people who are already in these markets feel this of course, but doesn’t matter, because everyone is addicted already in will keep putting money in it. For the new people who only know bitcoin, it’s important that btc makes a big price jump again. That’s how I see it. It’s not that they want to drain the market, but they have to do it this way, because there are not enough buyers to push the price higher, they have to pump en dump it to keep their own risk not to high. They already have most of their wealth in bitcoin, they are not that stupid to just keep on adding and increasing their risk
+2 Reply
@botje11, Yeah, I am shorting now. ;)

Why are the Whales so greedy? With all those $100's of millions... yet they are addicted to their cocaine.
Reply
botje11 mightytrader
@mightytrader, Most people are always greedy, but i don't think their intention is to earn extra money. To be clear, i am talking about the people who have massive amounts of Bitcoin. They maybe even dont care about earning a few extra million, they only want the price of Bitcoin to go 50K/100K 1000K or whatever, so they can be the rule the world. That's all science fiction ofcourse, but ofcourse they would love to see Bitcoin at 20K or 40K or whatever. I am convinced they already have thrown in some of their (bitcoin) wealth to rescue it. But they cant just risk it all, because IF Bitcoin would collapse they would loose all of their wealth. Therefore i say, they try to push it higher, as steady as possible, so new buyers feel very comfortable to get in (i mean who was not comfortable the last few weeks to go long, even i as a bear was feeling great when i was long LOL. I dont mean they try to dump it, they need to sell at the higher prices and buy back a bit lower so they can do the same again and push it another 1000 or 2000 higher. But the higher it goes, the more money they need to do so. So there is your answer :)
+1 Reply
@botje11, Yet, now it makes sense when you say, "But the higher it goes, the more money they need to do so. So there is your answer :)"

This is the difference between the logarithmic v.s. linear chart on the price scale. The higher the price, the less significant space in the vertical axis. C.f. e.g. Litecoin moves from $4 to $12 (an $8 move) v.s. $400 to $408 (also an $8 move).
Reply
botje11 mightytrader
@mightytrader, I think the logarithmic chart only works (in the present) if enormous amounts of people AND money flow into these markets. Not just the young people or Asia, no! Than you need real institutional money and money from serious adult people. Not a few hundred bucks or a few grand that all the young people throw into this market in the hope of chasing a dream. Many analysts here use logarithmic charts, but they dont even understand what they are doing. A year ago it worked, because the market was very small back than and allot of money has flown into this market. But for Bitcoin to reach 100K or 500K and alts making jumps of 1000 to 50000%, than the whole world needs to put in money. The way you explain it is correct, but now, you also need that $400 first
Reply
@botje11, Myself, I don't use the logarithmic chart to trade with; but I find it interesting to compare! I agree with you that the hobbyists and millennials are not enough to make the market move significantly higher. We need the greedballs on Wall St. and maybe even tech companies investing.

Personally, I think this market is so speculative and "out-there" that it's really just a game for some Big Players to capitalize on the public's hopes, dreams and desires as well as their fears.

No one cared about cryptocurrency 2 years ago.. why all-of-the-sudden is it so special and dear to all these people that they start all these YouTube channels?

It's special because of the price action and the gains were nothing short of incredible.

I think there is some practical application for cryptos beyond Bitcoin; however it's so new, speculative and untested. I don't know how to asses the value of stuff that is still in alpha or beta stage and not actually being used for anything.

Personally, I prefer Microsoft Azure over Ethereum any day.

I've always liked Bitcoin though... But I think its price is absurd at this point in time.
Reply
botje11 mightytrader
@mightytrader, to summarize, i like Bitcoin too, but i just don't like what people are doing with it, (manipulating, scams, speculating, stealing, hacks, whatever :)) people only want to become rich off cryptos, they don't embrace the idea. That's why it will never work, that's just my opinion :)
Reply
@botje11, * Yes,
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Seviii botje11
@botje11, Nice input man, thx!
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