Looks to be at a major inflection point right now as it recently broke above the macro downtrend line......will either be the official start to a new bull trend or it could be a head fake before the next big move down......for it to be a new bull trend then it needs to close above 480 & for it to continue the bearishness......then it needs to close back below the macro downward sloping trendline around 434 & specifically it needs to close below the 420 level which is the upward sloping trendline for any major downward move to happen..........watch volume for confirmation to the bullish or bearish case.....IMO is that this is a head fake before a major move down due to the lack of bullish volume prebreakout
Comments
ronfkingswanson
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example
jago25_98
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this linear vs log scale kind of baffles me. log is more common and seems to be more accepted for btc in particular.
"Which will cause the same emotional swing as an increase in the value of something from $1 to $1.50? Will it be an increase from $50 to $50.50, or an increase from $50 to $75? Naturally, the latter,"
"relative performance, which is in tune with what people are interested in and what influences their trading decision"
In other words, log is more emotional. If you were working with say, weather, then linear would be better.
Such as basic thing, took quite a bit of searching to find info and so far still haven't found anything scientific to measure this.
ronfkingswanson
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whether you paid $1 per share of 100 shares, or you paid $100 per share of 1 share, when either of those shares *double*, you would said you doubled your money (you now have $200 either way). That's why percentage change in the pricing instruments is what matters. Everyone is dealing with whatever price they got in at, and their profit is a factor of that percentage increase from their entry. But looking at the history of price for such an instrument in a linear chart would give you the visual impression that the move from 100-200 was "bigger" than the move from 1-2. But that's not the case.
djflowmaster
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Looks like the volume finally came in for the bullish b/o but it was several days after it broke the linear downtrend line which made it tricky to confirm as a start of a new bull trend
ronfkingswanson
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once again, if you had been using log scale, you would notice that the bullish breakout came *precisely* when the big bear triangle line was breached. ;-)
djflowmaster
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I see that now actually.....very good point there! Do u think currencies or bitcoin in particular trade more accurately as far as charting goes on a logarithmic scale? Also.....what types of investments would u use log scales on? Don't know too much about log vs. linear scales but it clearly looks like bitcoin def trades/charts on a log scale now
ronfkingswanson
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it's about percentage change -- so an instrument that only moves 0.01% over whatever period you're looking at isn't going to appear any different in linear or log scale. But the greater the volatility, the more important it is to use log. Thus, bitcoin is an obvious fit. Exponential growth, massive absolute value swings.
ronfkingswanson
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there's no bullish volume because we haven't crossed the big bear triangle, either from the ATH or just the January peak. Because you're using linear and not logarithmic scale, that trendline is not showing you what the rest of the market sees.
if we really had breached that huge bear triangle, we'd be on a bull rocket of euphoria -- but the fact that we're *not* is evidence that such a breach has not occurred -- which you would notice if you switched to log scale. ;-)
djflowmaster
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Thx. & good point.....I see what u are saying here.....there is a visual & substantial diff here w/ the linear vs. logarithmic scales......totally changes the chart & some of the outlook too.......u think that BTCUSD breaks the big bear triangle on the logarithmic scale?
ronfkingswanson
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as my example below shows, it has not broken it yet. If it had, we'd be hearing a lot more bullish sentiment around here ;-)