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Cy83rCr45h
Feb 6, 2021 11:20 AM

Long term Bitcoin strategy Long

Bitcoin / U.S. dollarBitstamp

Description

So, on a log scale I see this channel.

How to:
-> When the price is in the accumulation area (between lower limit and accumulation line): weekly/monthly plan of investing
-> When the price is between the accumulation line and the profit line: sit back, invest in something else, hold, relax, go to the theater, play videogames, love your partners
-> When the price crosses the take profit line wait for two conditions before taking profit: 1) hit the high limit line, or 2) cross below the take profit line.
-> stockpile your profits and wait for the price to go again below the accumulation line, then buy.
-> repeat

[!] Eventual riskier and speculative setup: when the price is on the lower limit line it could be a potentially good point to use high leverage.

This is not financial advice, do your own research.

Trade active

Back to accumulation area. :D
How long will it last before price takes off again?
Comments
Paper_is_Poverty
Great chart! Thank you for sharing.

I have been working on something similar for a while and I vascilate on exactly where in the cycle we currently find ourselves. I was originally thinking that we are about where your yellow in the middle of the channel is. I had us peaking in August 2021, but for the past few weeks, I have been starting to think we will run until December as usual. The difference in price of the latter would be about 2X what I was originally thinking (which is what you have). I thought 120k - 150k would be the peak, but if this runs until December, it could easily run to 400k, with about half of that coming in the last two weeks before the cycle ends.
Cy83rCr45h
@MatthewBraly
The first time a drew it I also I was also having the price nearing the middle line (yellow/orange). But then I thought that the 2014 peak was meaningful.

Anyway if the price keeps flirting with the accumulation line, then 100k is a reasonable target, eventualy. But yes, I wouldn't see it as a peak since it wouldn't be any close to the middle line.

By now I accumulate on my monthly plan. If we get to 20-25k I'll start using heavy leverage risking a 25% of my btc investment. Tbh I'm hoping for a touch at that low limit line. (:
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