Your 2nd chart is almost identical to my most recent with a buy box bottom near 8800
On your 1st chart however, your invalidation level at 8900 is above your weekly support level. Doesn't that mean a buy up here that gets stopped at the invalidation level would get exiting almost the same time the day chart becomes bullish? I was looking at the recent consolidation pattern and thinking it might be distribution so that price can move down to the 8800 level then accumulate for real and move up again. The bars pattern BTC printed a while back did something similar.
@mljones, i personally think we are going back to 9.5k before another drop :)
MacroTradingE
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@MacroTradingE, this trade setup invalidate when 8.9k break down, if 8.9k break down we most likely to wait and see "selling climax" , "Spring" in a bigger timeframe. 1hour timeframe is for daily trade only
MacroTradingE
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@mljones, i agree with your first chart, we might touch 50ma in daily frame which is around 9.5 area now. then fall back to see a "spring" "selling climax"
MacroTradingE
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@MacroTradingE, sorry my mistake. 4hour chart 50ma is around 9.5k , daily 9.3k :)
mljones
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@MacroTradingE, it sounds like if it does go to 9.5k it would be good to tighten stops quite a bit since the expectation is it might fall back quickly like it did on the bars pattern? And then if it does fall back it could go all the way below 8.9k as a bullish spring on the larger time frame?
MacroTradingE
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@mljones, we don't know yet. that is my expectation based on volume action. in daily frame i have not seen any bounce just yet, which means haven't confirmed this as accumulation in bigger timeframe.
MacroTradingE
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@mljones, reversal was with morning star candle pattern, but volume was not convinced. my trading plan is long above 8.9 , short under 8.9.
On your 1st chart however, your invalidation level at 8900 is above your weekly support level. Doesn't that mean a buy up here that gets stopped at the invalidation level would get exiting almost the same time the day chart becomes bullish? I was looking at the recent consolidation pattern and thinking it might be distribution so that price can move down to the 8800 level then accumulate for real and move up again. The bars pattern BTC printed a while back did something similar.