I think the market is currently in limbo until the SEC announces the Van Eck decision on 30 September 2018. The recent decisions never had much of an impact on price, however the Van Eck has carried a bit more weight in the media these past few months. Personally I don't believe the outcome will be positive just yet, at least until the red tape and custodian issues are ironed out first. Saying that, institutional developments are on the rise so hopefully we have an by next year, if we're really really lucky!
If you look at the , we are currently in a with horizontal support and falling resistance. has been steadily dropping and is at a crucial level of resistance. As you can see +-45 has held as strong resistance until now.
I'll be going short once an rumour is confirmed and once we have broken out of the to the downside. should spike and we should then expect to drop below our yearly low. If we fall below $5500 I expect a strong bounce from a $4955 bottom, if we don't find that strong bounce at those $5k levels, I think we're in trouble and can expect a lot more blood on the streets!
Projected Target: $5500
Unluckily, there are 2 more reasons for the market to go down in the last week of September so I don't think this changes much.
Mt Gox creditors meeting is on 26 September, with proposed talks of liquidating Bitcoin. Since there are 170 000 Bitcoins, I'm sure this is going to have an impact in one way or another, probably not positive since I can't think of a single positive thing to take out of that whole fiasco.
Volume has also been steadily dropping signifying a drop in trader interest and rise in bearish sentiment.
Still sitting on my hands until they're warm and there's clear direction. Not long now until the market makes up its mind.