TradingView
venzen
Aug 12, 2014 4:20 AM

Does News Move the Bitcoin Market? Short

Bitcoin / U.S. dollarBitstamp

Description

One can often hear market participants saying "Some bad news could see a sell-off" or "So much good news and where is the rally?".

The chart shows some of the major news events of the past months in context of price action. It illustrates that there is no correlation between the relative positivity or negativity of news - that the market evidently uses news events as triggers to capitulate pre-existing trend.

eBay had turnover of 16bil in 2013 and Dell had 56bil. If the inherent (fundamental) content of news was truly the driver of price then the Dell announcement should have sparked a rally 3x the distance of the supposed eBay inspired rally. Similarly, the BitLicense Regulatory proposal came from the heartland of Wall Street yet it took a relatively insignificant Bitcoin player, Ecuador, to tilt a sell-off.

read more at: cryptocoinsnews.com/news/news-move-bitcoin-market/2014/08/11

On the right hand side, targets to the downside are annotated - derived from simple Fibonacci extensions.
Comments
ChartArt
You forgot the most important mainstream news, which happened exactly when we had to stay on the uptrend - but which killed this year's much needed Bitcoin uptrend after China and MtGox:


Bitcoin faces biggest threat yet: a miner takeover
news.yahoo.com/bitcoin-faces-biggest-threat-yet-miner-takeover-060148847.html

And the AP news was re-published everywhere in the world, just a few examples of hundreds:

(India) Bitcoin faces new threat
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/tech/tech-news/GHash-Bitcoin-faces-new-threat/articleshow/36719062.cms

(Canada) Bitcoin faces previously unimaginable threat: Takeover by a pool of 'miners'
calgaryherald.com/business/Bitcoin+faces+previously+unimaginable+threat+takeover+pool/9945385/story.html

(Russia) Bitcoin currency vulnerable after anonymous miner takes 51% network share
voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_06_17/Bitcoin-stability-biggest-threat-a-miner-takeover-6325/

(UK) Is Bitcoin facing a takeover? Investors are rattled as mining group gains control of half the currency's computer power
dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2659862/Bitcoin-faces-biggest-threat-miner-takeover.html

Even The Economist jumped on this news:

Bitcoin: Losing to win
economist.com/blogs/schumpeter/2014/06/bitcoin


The mainstream press didn't write about this other Reddit news event, which also happened at that time:

Why I just sold 50% of my bitcoins
reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/281ftd/why_i_just_sold_50_of_my_bitcoins_ghashio/


These news events are at the center of my chart:
tradingview.com/v/wRFOPTbL/
ChartArt
Techcrunch made the bad news popular:

- ‘51%’ Fears Rattle The Bitcoin Community
techcrunch.com/2014/06/15/51-fears-rattle-the-bitcoin-community/

After Techcrunch for tech geeks The Guardian was the first big major mainstream news source to cover the Ghash event. Which I bet was the inspiration for the AP to write about it as news article for all newspapers around the world.

- Bitcoin currency could have been destroyed by '51%' attack
theguardian.com/technology/2014/jun/16/bitcoin-currency-destroyed-51-attack-ghash-io

Much later this urged Coindesk to cover the news:

- Are 51% Attacks a Real Threat to Bitcoin?
coindesk.com/51-attacks-real-threat-bitcoin/
venzen
Once published I noticed that the annotations had readjusted their position on the chart. They're still accurately pointing to the correct chart positions - just not as neatly as I initially drew them.
More