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Unfortunately Bitcoin failed to close above the 12H midband at $8,140 and 1D midband at $8,200 to remain bullish . Were back at being cautiously bearish after our stoploss was hit at $8,085.
The bull setup we had and the 12H 1D Head Fake setup were never confirmed as we failed to break above the resistance at $8,290-8,330 and close a daily above $8,350.
So where are we at now?
Well TA wise the bulls do not much have left anymore at these levels beside the higher lows on the Weekly support at $7,800-7,700. The potential bullish head fake setup on the 12H 1D has for now also failed. FA wise the bulls have the important May 2020 Halving where the reward gets slash from 12 to 6.5 BTC but that's 7 months away.
But the bears do have now a wide range of patterns all converging to similar targets near $6,900-6,600, lets summarize them here quickly okay?
1. Bearish H&S reversal pattern from 10K-9K with target $6,800-6,600 2. Bearish H&S continuation pattern from 8K with target $6,900-6,800 3. Bottom of the mid-term falling wedge at $7,200-6,900 4. Blue Broadening Wedge short-term with target $6,700-6,600
> However to confirm the bear trend we need a lower low on the Weekly below $7,811 Bitstamp .
> Otherwise if a higher low is set again say at or above $7,850, then we may go in sideways for at least a week till the CME Expires/Settles after October 28 and till we close the Monthly candle. If we do not see any breakdown after that time going into early November then we may see the bulls get another chance at the $8,290-8,330 and $8,416-8,570 resistance.
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Trade active
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New Weekly lower low set below $7,811 few hours ago which triggered and washdown to $7,400s.
Currently heading towards the $6,900-6,600 buy/long range of confluence
Trade closed: stop reached
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Stop reached at $8,000-8,100. We expected some kind of move today at the CME expiry to $7,770 however not of that scale. At this moment, this was the highest volume seen since June 2019 which is an indicator of a bottom on the bear trend for now. We should be seeing a halving rally develop from here towards at least $11,800-12,000+ in the coming weeks/months as long as we do not go below $7,850 again.
Comment
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See our Head Fake Scenario at play afterall here. We technically had a fake out as I had anticipated days ago however it was followed by another fake out to $7,400-7,300 then the real move which is quite complex but they happen
Hi @BitcoinGuru , a price drop to $6,700 would be a 50 % drop and that has never happened before during a bull trend. Usually, BTC drops 20%-40% in a bull trend. Would that be possible? I mean bull trend, since the 3k was the bottom.
BitcoinGuru
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@mmrvi8, I know I know, and yes it would be the first time if that happens but there is a first time for everything really. With the halving still 6 months roughly away it is possible to drop and bottom around $6,900-6,600 and building the halving rally from there. That said, I did state a condition above and the bears must put a lower low on the Weekly below $7,811. if they fail then we will be stuck in long sideways chopping everyone left and right through November.
I think with the high frequency algos and institutions and CME on board we are looking at a new and more complex than what we had back in 2013-2016. Trading now has changed so much since that time and we must adapt. Also exercise proper risk management.
mmrvi8
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@BitcoinGuru, Thank you for the explanation. You are right that now trading has changed and it is more complex than 2013-2016.
conorcp
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@mmrvi8, maybe we are not in a bull trend... or maybe we are and bitcoin is just behaving differently this time (it is a very new market with little history to go off).
Goody4cXBT
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Is it late for me to short?
If yes!
What's the target range am new here.
BitcoinGuru
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@Goody4chi, it’s too late to short now at $7.500-7,400. A short with a tight stoploss could have been opened from $7,950 or above with a tight stoploss before the breakdow.
Target range to buy long is 6900-6600
conorcp
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Good analysis. Too many indicators pointing to $7000 to be ignored. Just waiting for the breakdown!
ferGOD
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Nice work brother. I really liked your idea. Thanks for sharing. We go together.