This is an update to my larger timeframe analysis. (see Ideas below).
Currently looks to be in a wave 4 nearing completion. That leaves a final wave 5 (capitulation spike?) that should test 3k or even pierce it briefly.
The fact that the drops have been more shallow, and the bounces stronger, tells me we are nearing a bottom. I say ''a'' bottom as I am not totally convinced this will be ''the'' bottom, but the odds are looking better.
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Background: This is a continuation of my calculations to find the 'bottom' and consider whether it will go any lower or not.
First I saw 3618 on CoinBase as important which had been on my charts for over 6 months:
Getting closer, I started to see a bigger picture coming together:
As it bounced, 4425 came into focus as the big hurdle:
After it topped at 4425, a rising wedge combined with EW waves pointed to a serious pullback:
So now zooming back out to the original large 5 wave impulse, targets are in sight again:
wave 4 didnt reach the target , seem like we're in route to wave 5 ... time to short!
EuroMotif
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@MrNarmerk, Indeed, that last push did not happen. We may well be starting wave 5, watching and measuring now....
ReallyMe
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I think we're about to slump to $ 2.5k
EuroMotif
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@ReallyMe, yeah, looking pretty weak again.
How did you choose your Fib placement? (I assume based on good hits at the retracement levels?)
ReallyMe
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@EuroMotif, Yeah, basically by trying and dividing a peak to trough distance by the golden ratio and/or other ratios in the sequence. If it is evident that the price reacts to these levels that is probably the picture. In this case it shows that 2.5k would be the next most likely retracement level.
monguilhot
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Hi friend... I have a light different wave count :D
EuroMotif
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@monguilhot, Hi and thanks for sharing. I do like your count, an ending diagonal for the wave 5, very possible!
monguilhot
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@EuroMotif, Everything is compliment with the target, H&S exacly on the target: