DanV
Long

BTUSD - Parabolic Move - Is it a Bubble?

MTGOX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
8502 28 43
Disclaimer - I am not trading this instrument yet. So at present my interest in this instrument is purely from charting perspective. Having said that I originally published my first chart in September you can view it is at
BTCUSD


I expected the retracement which never materialised in the manner expected. Yet the 600+ for possible completion of 5 waves have more than met and in fact we are probably not half way in to this cycle.

Note my comments in the chart. Clearly we are in wave (3) on my chart and this have habit of extending several times particularly in very strong trend. Therefore, no Fib extension or trend channel or such would really work. So using the percentage change in price of wave (1) and projection by common Fib relation of wave (3) and some other similar calculation, I speculate that we might now surpasss 10,000 mark for wave (3) to complete by March 2014. One to watch for sure as there will be sharp sell off along the way that might give heart attack of if entered the trade at the wrong time or stop too close to the price action given the 400+ decline not unusual as we continue to clime higher.
http://www.danv-charting.com
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChJVIJir7nymD9J3ZWoal-w/feed
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#E4bnOJSWcO1zDjBG
Original labels on the shorter term chart has changed somewhat. So here is my current interpretation of continued decline and still in progress to complete wave (iv) of (c). That could complete larger Wave (iv) retracement from top around 1250 zone. If so then we might be able to see new bullish wave commence. No doubt this will change from the idealistic path outlined on chart, So one to watch.
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Thank you for the update!
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I find that the more people are angry about wavecounts, the more likely they are to play out as predicted. Keep up the great analysis, let the haters be testament to your success!

Much respect to you.
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Fontas Fontas
It looks like the bottom at $455 is in. Looks like wave (iv) is complete and this marks the start of wave (v). Other indicators, such as Fisher Transform, StochRSI, Ao, all support this scenario. If this is true we are to make an extremely bullish push to new ATH and perhaps 1700, correct?
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Thanks for that, appreciate it. Yes, some do not agree with my chart but then it is puzzling as they don't offer an alternative. But in absence of other analysis, we only have our own, and I for one am happy with that and will be willing to accept when proven wrong regardless of others making different noises. Thanks again.
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Please update the current situation and your prediction to come, thanks.
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soma DanV
Hello Dan, would you post the chart update from yesterday?
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Price seems to have got stuck on BTUSD, but BTCNY seems to be suggesting more downside. Using that as proxy we could see low around 400 on BTUSD
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Hi DanV... looking at your original chart, and the subsequent chars, why do you expect that the price will fall to 400-500 again and that your original prediction was incorrect?

What if we've finished (iv) with 50% correction on 2013-12-04 and are having end-of-year stabilization period before (v) as on your original chart? That is, what if your original prediction is correct, but wave (iv) happened a bit sooner and a bit faster than expected because of China announcements...
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