BTC is acting as expected. It tested EMA 200 as support and then went up to the 9.1k level (I'm glad to say I had good profits, but it could be better; I have to improve my trade strategy). Now we have to watch. I'm neutral right now. The following points will give hints about the next trade:
1. I think there is low probability that BTC surpasses the 9.1 ~9.4k congestion zone (strong resistance) right now; I expect a correction, I do not know the extension of that correction.
NOTE: Low probability is not ZERO probability.
2. Considering that a retraction is the most likely scenario; the first target is the 8.5k level. It is where EMA 18 is placed right now. BTC will test this level as support.
3. If EMA 18 do not hold (and I think it will not; it is just a guess), the next level is EMA 200 (observe: EMA 200 and EMA 50 are converging). Both EMA 200 and EMA 50 are inside a strong congestion zone: the 7.5~8.3k congestion zone. If EMA 200 do not hold, then we can expect that BTC to re-test the 7.5k level as support.
4. In my point of view, we are not in a bear market (see related idea: "BTC: things are clear now"). There is a purple uptrend line that iniciates in feb. 2019 and was tested in nov. 2019, dec. 2019 and jan. 2020. BTC may re-test this line as support. Today, this support is around the 7.2k level. If a new test of that uptrend line occurs and it holds, then things will become more interesting.
DIGRESSION: Around feb. 20, 2020, this uptrend line will be around 7.5k. It will be an interesting date to re-test the purple uptrend line as support].
For now, we have to search for short-term opportunities.
*For educational purposes only.
1. I think there is low probability that BTC surpasses the 9.1 ~9.4k congestion zone (strong resistance) right now; I expect a correction, I do not know the extension of that correction.
NOTE: Low probability is not ZERO probability.
2. Considering that a retraction is the most likely scenario; the first target is the 8.5k level. It is where EMA 18 is placed right now. BTC will test this level as support.
3. If EMA 18 do not hold (and I think it will not; it is just a guess), the next level is EMA 200 (observe: EMA 200 and EMA 50 are converging). Both EMA 200 and EMA 50 are inside a strong congestion zone: the 7.5~8.3k congestion zone. If EMA 200 do not hold, then we can expect that BTC to re-test the 7.5k level as support.
4. In my point of view, we are not in a bear market (see related idea: "BTC: things are clear now"). There is a purple uptrend line that iniciates in feb. 2019 and was tested in nov. 2019, dec. 2019 and jan. 2020. BTC may re-test this line as support. Today, this support is around the 7.2k level. If a new test of that uptrend line occurs and it holds, then things will become more interesting.
DIGRESSION: Around feb. 20, 2020, this uptrend line will be around 7.5k. It will be an interesting date to re-test the purple uptrend line as support].
For now, we have to search for short-term opportunities.
*For educational purposes only.
