Price started down move near $10.800 good place to open Sell
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Price stated down drop we can see on the chart that price finished up rise with huge volume. Near $10 700 - $10 900 is a good place to open sell entry because big players need to take profit of retail traders.
I personally wouldn’t take the risk of opening a short position in such a bullish market however I do think your prediction is pretty accurate, I suspect at will retrace from about 12k down to a possible 6-7k but the personally think safer to buy after retrace