Good morning, traders. It looks like we may have finally printed the 5th leg of the C wave. As we can see, the volume continues to drop with each move down. The expectation was for price to reach a bit lower, and it still may, but as I have cautioned about continually last week, there was the possibility of a very short, or even truncated, 5th. A move above the swing high at $3704.60 would let us know that the next impulse up has likely started. So, while everyone is convinced it's going down to new lows right now, price action and volume continue to suggest corrective movement with another impulse upward coming. While this doesn't guarantee that we will see significant movement to the upside, it does increase the odds. As always, traders should be utilizing strong risk management and waiting for confirmations before entering a position.
H1 chart:
The bearish divergence noted last Friday has played out with this slight movement further down. Now we find RSI pushing through resistance but the McGinley Dynamic holding price in check at the moment. Price has again bounced off the EQ level of the demand zone, though supply is still showing up around $3550. We are seeing more possible bearish divergence in the MACD histogram so we could have just a bit further down toward the pink box still left to go. Until we push through that swing high mentioned above, it remains a possibility. As such, we have either completed or are very near to completing the C wave and we should see another impulse up. In terms of Wyckoff's accumulation, the local low marks a perfect LPS right above the bottom of the TR. So, having price print the bottom of the flag while bouncing off that support is significant. We can also note a possible descending wedge printing on this TF, but we still need an alternating touch of the resistance before it is confirmed. Alternatively, we could see price heading lower in one of two scenarios: 1) targeting the pink box (most likely around $3390, if so) which would produce a Spring that fails to break the ST low (happens rarely but signifies significant demand) or 2) a dump that creates a Spring whereby price drops below the ST low, as we would usually expect to see. In this latter case, we want to see a low-volume drop when compared to the drop that led into the TR. We will discuss this and the EW count during this morning's live stream.
H12 chart:
Currently, price is printing a large flag with four alternating touches. A move beyond the swing high noted above should set up a target of the top of the flag. At that point, we would most likely see a pullback and then a push through that resistance which would get price above the 50 EMA. Be wary of the bearish around you who state that moving above the 50 EMA isn't significant as they are the same ones who have been stating that it's an important resistance.
As a reminder, Friday I mentioned that traders should use caution with long positions if we get a close below $3566. This would appear to confirm the double top and the measured move would be a target of around $2935 which is also the S5 pivot. Until a close below $3566, it is only a possible double top. As I have continued to warn traders, we need to see volume increasing as price increases to provide the fuel needed to push through that nearby overhead resistance. Failure to do so means price is most likely headed down. However, down may not be bad. If there is a move down from here to the ~$2900 target, then it could very well just be a Spring which would indicate bullish momentum incoming and we could expect a very nice move up. However, we would have to wait until that point and evaluate price action and volume at that time.
Miscellaneous:
The H4 MACD and its histogram have printed bullish divergence which should lead to a trend reversal to the upside. However, we really need to see continued bullish momentum and price printing a higher high above $3654.02. Failure to do so will result in hidden bearish divergence which should lead to another move down, likely targeting the pink box. The H4 McGinley Dynamic also aligns with the the small descending wedge's resistance, suggesting that a move above it is significant and should lead to much higher targets. The H6 MACD is curled up and its histogram is nearing a bullish cross over centerline. D1 MACD histogram is currently printing bullish divergence between December 7th and today, but this will not be confirmed until a shorter histogram prints (i.e. price closes higher on that TF). If price happens to drop below the December 7th swing low at $3210, the possible bullish divergence would be nullified.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
H1 chart:
The bearish divergence noted last Friday has played out with this slight movement further down. Now we find RSI pushing through resistance but the McGinley Dynamic holding price in check at the moment. Price has again bounced off the EQ level of the demand zone, though supply is still showing up around $3550. We are seeing more possible bearish divergence in the MACD histogram so we could have just a bit further down toward the pink box still left to go. Until we push through that swing high mentioned above, it remains a possibility. As such, we have either completed or are very near to completing the C wave and we should see another impulse up. In terms of Wyckoff's accumulation, the local low marks a perfect LPS right above the bottom of the TR. So, having price print the bottom of the flag while bouncing off that support is significant. We can also note a possible descending wedge printing on this TF, but we still need an alternating touch of the resistance before it is confirmed. Alternatively, we could see price heading lower in one of two scenarios: 1) targeting the pink box (most likely around $3390, if so) which would produce a Spring that fails to break the ST low (happens rarely but signifies significant demand) or 2) a dump that creates a Spring whereby price drops below the ST low, as we would usually expect to see. In this latter case, we want to see a low-volume drop when compared to the drop that led into the TR. We will discuss this and the EW count during this morning's live stream.
H12 chart:
Currently, price is printing a large flag with four alternating touches. A move beyond the swing high noted above should set up a target of the top of the flag. At that point, we would most likely see a pullback and then a push through that resistance which would get price above the 50 EMA. Be wary of the bearish around you who state that moving above the 50 EMA isn't significant as they are the same ones who have been stating that it's an important resistance.
As a reminder, Friday I mentioned that traders should use caution with long positions if we get a close below $3566. This would appear to confirm the double top and the measured move would be a target of around $2935 which is also the S5 pivot. Until a close below $3566, it is only a possible double top. As I have continued to warn traders, we need to see volume increasing as price increases to provide the fuel needed to push through that nearby overhead resistance. Failure to do so means price is most likely headed down. However, down may not be bad. If there is a move down from here to the ~$2900 target, then it could very well just be a Spring which would indicate bullish momentum incoming and we could expect a very nice move up. However, we would have to wait until that point and evaluate price action and volume at that time.
Miscellaneous:
The H4 MACD and its histogram have printed bullish divergence which should lead to a trend reversal to the upside. However, we really need to see continued bullish momentum and price printing a higher high above $3654.02. Failure to do so will result in hidden bearish divergence which should lead to another move down, likely targeting the pink box. The H4 McGinley Dynamic also aligns with the the small descending wedge's resistance, suggesting that a move above it is significant and should lead to much higher targets. The H6 MACD is curled up and its histogram is nearing a bullish cross over centerline. D1 MACD histogram is currently printing bullish divergence between December 7th and today, but this will not be confirmed until a shorter histogram prints (i.e. price closes higher on that TF). If price happens to drop below the December 7th swing low at $3210, the possible bullish divergence would be nullified.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
Comment:
Still seem to be having issues with some of these charts. Here's a link to a correct chart display so you don't have to scroll it.
