The critical MA for breaking out this consolidation is THIS.
Before reading this analysis, please read my previous articles about 24 and 30 DMA as key element to price support and driving forces for price transition. They are listed below this article.
Now, a new week has begun, and this week will be a very important week to confirm whether there will be a continuing rally soon or not.
Let's dive into a few important points:
1. 30 DMA still has to play a key support level. As we can also find a good evidence in April last year, 30 DMA had played out nicely as a strong support level during a short consolidation period before continuation of a large rally. Check this chart below.
You see the 30 DMA has been a good support line for a few days before breaking out of 24 DMA, and once the break-out happened, the rally continued.
2. Keep your eyes on 10D and 30D charts. Many dramatic rises or falls came near or after close of 10D and 30D chart candles. 30th day of this month is the close date of this 10D and 30D candle. It is likely we'll see some a big change in that time section.
3. What if it fails to break out 24 DMA? We also need to prepare for a scenario for the breakout does not happen, and the price pulls back to find another great support price line. From the previous history of bitcoin market in 2015 - 18, 24 WMA was the key support level and a major driving force for the long-time rally. Of course, today's market environments are much different than those time period, but If we expect a long rally like this, let's also include a scenario that the price continues to consolidate or pull back for a longer period until the 24 WMA makes a rising shape to be a good support for a rally.
Conclusion : I'm still more on a bullish side, but as wise investors say, investors must respond to changes in the market rather than anticipating it. This week will be a key point for the next big change. I'll keep you guys updated as I see more evidences.
Now, a new week has begun, and this week will be a very important week to confirm whether there will be a continuing rally soon or not.
Let's dive into a few important points:
1. 30 DMA still has to play a key support level. As we can also find a good evidence in April last year, 30 DMA had played out nicely as a strong support level during a short consolidation period before continuation of a large rally. Check this chart below.
2. Keep your eyes on 10D and 30D charts. Many dramatic rises or falls came near or after close of 10D and 30D chart candles. 30th day of this month is the close date of this 10D and 30D candle. It is likely we'll see some a big change in that time section.
3. What if it fails to break out 24 DMA? We also need to prepare for a scenario for the breakout does not happen, and the price pulls back to find another great support price line. From the previous history of bitcoin market in 2015 - 18, 24 WMA was the key support level and a major driving force for the long-time rally. Of course, today's market environments are much different than those time period, but If we expect a long rally like this, let's also include a scenario that the price continues to consolidate or pull back for a longer period until the 24 WMA makes a rising shape to be a good support for a rally.
Conclusion : I'm still more on a bullish side, but as wise investors say, investors must respond to changes in the market rather than anticipating it. This week will be a key point for the next big change. I'll keep you guys updated as I see more evidences.
Comment:
During I was writing my article, BTC broke out 24 DMA and now testing BB midline.
Comment:
1D candle did not surpass the Bollinger Band midline. We are in the zone between 24DMA and 30DMA. It seems to me there won't be not much fluctuation rather than consolidation movement. As said above, transition will start at the next 10D and 30D candle.
