I feel the bounce of Bitcoin over the last few days has been too fast, although its volatility remains high, with around a 6% daily fluctuation.
The fractal from November 2021 suggests a bearish scenario for Bitcoin going forward until the halving. The bounce seems to be just an ABC retrace wave pattern, suggesting another leg down. If Bitcoin closes red tomorrow, the chance of this pattern playing out will increase.
I will keep you posted!
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Bitcoin was rejected at USD 72K today. If it starts bleeding from here in the next few days, the chance for this fractal to play out will increase.
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If Bitcoin cannot hold above 63K in the next few days, the chance for those more bearish scenarios below will increase.
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Bitcoin continues its pre-halving correction. The short-term target for a long position is the area around 60K to 62K.
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Bitcoin followed the plan well, so I initiated my long position today. I will add more if it approaches close to 60K USD. The stop-loss will be set below 60K USD.
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Bitcoin will likely continue moving sideways until the halving. The best course of action now is to stay away, wait, and see. The market will likely be very choppy in the coming weeks.
Trade closed manually
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Closing this idea as the one below is tracking better Bitcoin price action so far.
@unbeldi, Bitcoin always experiences pre-halving corrections. The halving causes a supply shortage from mining, so prices will face pressure to rise afterward.
unbeldi
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@System_T, The halvings have nothing to do with corrections. Don’t believe this myth. It’s just stupid. People trying to explain something for which they have no other culprits. Corrections occur only when major first, third, or fifth wave are completed, save for black swan events. The charts prove this.
System_T
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@unbeldi, I don't believe in the myth neither. I trade following the fact that it happened three times before regardless of reasoning or technical patterns. Check out the history and you can see!
Mark Twain once said that “History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme.”
unbeldi
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@System_T, corrections happen all the time, because waves of various degrees finish all the time. Given the narrow window of the halvings, even major ones will always fall somewhere close to a halving. The period from a year before to about a year after the halvings, the market is generally in an uptrend, and therefore it is a logical fact that corrections will be more noticeable than in the rest of the cycle when few pay attention. We have had three recognized halvings. In 2020, the market was disrupted by a black swan event, COVID, just before the halving. But it even recovered quickly before the event. The crash pulled the rug from underneath an ongoing bull market, in its beginnings. So 2020 is not a year that should be quoted. So out of three, we only have two supposed examples left. How significant can that possibly be? Every instance is perfectly explained by Elliott wave theory. That being the case, it proves my point. It is the existing market structure that determines corrections, not external events. And this is also an established principle of socionomics, or social economics. The people promoting this pre-halving crash hype, are either attention seekers, or just plain ignorant of market structure and dynamics. Of course, halvings do have an effect on the market, but it is baked into the price always. It is what propels the market to new heights every cycle, but at the time of the halving event nobody but the miners feel anything. The miners loose half of their subsidy, and they feel it immediately.
System_T
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@unbeldi, So, based on your Elliott wave theory, does it suggest that Bitcoin will continue to correct until the halving, or is there a different scenario?
unbeldi
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@System_T, As I said, the halving, or its timing have nothing to do with the market. The market is in a very strong position in a third wave, the strongest of all. The correction from March 4 to 24 is technically finished. The peak, ATH, was part of the correction. It was an irregular top, see my post on that. This third wave will run toward 120000 or so. My estimated for the week of the halving has been for some time a price of around 100000. We will see a significant correction when this wave ends. And that could be before or after the halving. That is hard to predict, but my guess is that it won’t be before. But right now the market has to battle the resistance built up already before the new ATH, which may take another day or so. It’s certainly creeping up, but could catapult any time, just as well. The trend channel ascends about 585 dollars per day. That alone is a significant rise without spikes, so the creep can continue.