Bitcoin: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

The Good
There are short and midterm indications that we're probably in the beginning of a bull market for BTC.

• Above the triangle which took years to form (black line)
  
• Tested the top of the triangle with several daily bars with wicks confirming this as support (black box)
  
• Support again on the fib. 0.618 and border between the green and red channels (nb. pitchfork if you zoom out)
  
• 50-day MA (green line) above the 200-day MA (red line)
  
• Even if we move down it's still very unlikely for the price to go below, and stay below, the top of the triangle formation (black line) and 200-day MA (red line)
  

The Bad
The indecision and how it looks like anything can happen with the current setup.

• We kind of are in no mans land and a buy below the 50-day MA is not "advisable" at the moment
  
• 50-day MA and fib. 0.5 tested and price went back to the border between the green and red channels (nb. pitchfork if you zoom out)
  
• Price currently between the 50-day MA and 200-day MA
  

The Ugly
The macro, the everything bubble, correlations, yadda, yadda, yadda,...

• Correlation with Gold and US stock market (which are gigantic in comparison) is undeniable, looking like they are leading movements in BTC
  
• Those same markets are showing weakness and it's arguable if this is a short or long-term thing
  
• Hopeful but at the same time uncertain if when the correlation will be broken and at what cost
  

There is no reason to not be bullish long-term on BTC right now. At least, I am. But to sum it up, the fact is that we still are in a place of significant indecision, where the odds look like they are not in favor of anyone, and where bigger markets have too much weight on BTC and other cryptocurrencies to be ignored.

This is my own research and not intended as financial advice.

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Zoom out

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Related with my idea on gold

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Idea continues here: