2009-2021/2022 should be Bitcoin's Wave 1 in the Grand Cycle, and we're currently going through Wave V of this Wave 1, the 2018 bearish market serves as Wave IV of Wave 1.
Looking at the Wave 1 fibonacci ascending channel, our Wave V should go to at least 200 000 USD, if it does approach the top line of channel, then 600 000 USD in 2021 or 2022 is quite possible. If btc behaves as crazily as American share market did in 1929 and 1999, then in a seemingly unlikely scenario btc could go all the way up to 4 million USD between 2021 and 2022. I suppose something as crazy as large scale American civil unrest or borderline civil war, or extreme military tension between USA and China, Russia could be the fuel of the huge bitcoin advance to 4 million USD, breaking above the fibonacci channel and going to the 1.618 extension channel line.
My gut feeling is BTC will stop at some price level between Target 2 and Target 3, or between Target 1 and Target 2, in 2021 or 2022.
After the end of this grandiose Wave 1, the time length of Wave 2 could be between half and 0.618 of the time length of Wave 1. If Wave 1 finishes at the end of 2021, this means Wave 2 shall finish at 2029. Wave 2 could be either zigzag ABCDE correction, or WXY informal correction. Either way, this 7-8 year long bearish market will sure make many people lose hope and trust in bitcoin and cryptocurrency, in a similar fashion to the 2016 and 2018 bearish market, but possibly on a much larger scale. This means price could plummet from the high hundreds of thousands to the low thousands, something like 6000 or 5000 in the late 2020s.
People lost hope in the 2018 bear market? Are you sure about that, most of the moonboy crypto channels on youtube are still around, on telegram most of the people in various shitcoin channels are rekt bagholders who are certain that we are just about to head to 100k and every stupid alt is their ticket to a new lambo. What pain did these people endure? Three months of being really rekt and like magic with one push off from 3.2k we are on our way to outer space! I think there is a 5 wave up from 2011 to the 2017 peak which would correspond with the first leg of your grand cycle. I think we are in wave 2 of your idea right now at the B high. Pain, depression, and a true capitulation is coming for the rest of the year into 2020. Thats when we might finally see some people lose hope and clear the way for us to head back up.
MarcusAu
⋅
@ununununun, how could there be 5 waves from 2011 to 2017? Please elaborate, we can see very clearly it's only 3 waves from 2011 to 2017 on the monthly chart. You could say 2009-2010 or 2011 is Wave 1, 2011 to 2013 is Wave 3, 2015-2017 is Wave 5. However, I think the shape of the chart from 2015 to 2017 looks more like an extended 3rd Wave, with many short term corrections, and 2009-2013 should be a straighttforward Wave 1. Fundemantally, there were and still are many naysayers and doubters of cryptocurrency from the general public, and this 2019 market is definitely very different from the kind of atmosphere in 1999 or early 1929 American share market, when the dumb money from the public are all in and refuse to believe any chance of bearish action.
VincePrince
⋅
Fascinating, the excellent use of TA, i have similar views!