BITCOIN $19000 and the importance of the Channel's median

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Since the May 31 High and the subsequent sell-off, Bitcoin ( BTCUSD ) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern. We've plotted the Fibonacci retracement levels and the +/- 0.5 upper and lower extensions, in order to see potential pressure points/ levels.

As you see, the Channel's median (Fibonacci 0.5) has been dominating the price action with six so far (including the one three days ago) touches, all of which initiated rebounds. The 1D RSI and MACD ( Bullish Cross) sequences indicate that the current consolidation on Fib 0.5 resembles that of August 28 - September 07. That pattern fueled a rebound that stopped just above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 0.786 Fib. As long as the 0.5 Fib holds, the short-term target is the 0.786 Fib.

It is worth mentioning that the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), unbroken since December 31 2021, is now closer than even to the Channel Down. A closing above it can potentially test the 1.5 Fibonacci extension of the Channel. On the other hand, two closing in a row below the 0.5, can target instantly the 0.236 Fib, even the bottom of the Channel.

Which way do you think Bitcoin will break to first? Top or Bottom of the Channel? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!


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