Too many bears for me to be bearish. The defining moment will be next week, if we set new low then you have been right all along, if not then bears will get slaughtered in the market.
Ether2020
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@BlackisKing, How about what will happen with a bear market in the US just 4 weeks old? Crypto follow equities, Not to mention the escalating situation in interest rate hikes, war energy crisis and so on. In my opinion, a bottom can only emerge when the real situation improves. That is the opposite now. The big slide in equities is on the way, and crypto will not do the opposite.
I think just the opposite to you, there are still too many bulls predicting a new bull market, but they mainly look at lagging indicators or compare indicators in the BTC period 2011 to 2021. During that period, nothing just happened, which is what is happening now.
So when can we expect a bottom? I think only when the situation in the world improves. Check back what I wrote here my dear friend. You will be surprised what is ahead of us.
Happy trading!
BlackisKing
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@Ether2020, You said "I think just the opposite to you, there are still too many bulls predicting a new bull market". Facts do not support you. The amount of put in the marker is at one of the highest since 2008. If you look at history (not just that of crypto) market always goes up when the fed starts raising rates (do your research first before replying). September was supposed to be the bloodbath based on bears, and there was none. BTC will soon have smart contracts and that will be a positive for the crypto market. Do your own research. As I said, next week we will see how the market will move.
Ether2020
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@BlackisKing, do my research before replying? Are you kidding, my friend?
BlackisKing
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@Ether2020, do your research on this "If you look at history (not just that of crypto) market always goes up when the fed starts raising rates" because all your negative premise is on the fed raising rates.
Ether2020
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@BlackisKing, that's not true. I am talking about the energy crisis, the war with Russia and the West, the conflict between China and Taiwan, the recession which is only expected in the US in 2023. Also, the interest rate hikes to bring inflation back to 2%, The Dollar rising, falling consumer spending and many many others. Having traded a lot in options myself, I can tell you that the call put ratio is just an indicator. It doesn't always work like nothing always works.
To make money and not fall into the 90% group that loses everything in the longer term, you need many skills such as experience, a good trading plan, money and risk management, being psychologically prepared, not having FOMO and so on. In my opinion, perhaps the most important quality is that a trader must have a vision because indicators are great tools but are based on history. There is no indicator that is going to predict whether Russia is going to deploy tactical nuclear weapons. But if that happens, the whole market collapses. Could it happen? Yes indeed there is a high probability that the war will escalate and NATO will get involved.
I combine all my experience in TA, and I have been doing this for a very long time, with a vision. Telling traders that there won't be a new bull market in the near future comes up to disbelieve. No problem for me at all. Everyone gets to figure out how to be profitable. But it is much more complex than most people think.
Good luck with trading mate!
BlackisKing
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@Ether2020, You could be right but you also could be wrong. Like I stated in the past rising interest rate has coincided with rises in stock market. The main reason for the market crashing is not much the interest rate but the dxy. And the Dxy looks more like it is peaking. The sky is falling approach is not a strategy/vision. While you have alot of valid (negative) points, this is why I cannot be bearish in this market. And by the way, I am not calling for a new bull market in crypto, actually, I think we are in an ABC and we finished A. I recall during covid when everyone said the market and the whole world would burn. Those with a level mind were able to buy at the lows and made profit.
Good luck with trading as well.
Ether2020
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@BlackisKing, I have well analyzed the dollar index, and in my view it isn't peaking. It will move much, much higher. That is because interest rates are higher than in other currencies like the Euro/ Pound and others. Also, the dollar is still the world currency. The US economy is still strong, showing in labor market figures, and that is why the Federal Reserve can (still) easily raise interest rates further. But that has an effect on the dollar index, because higher interest rates make it more interesting to invest in the dollar and that causes the rate to keep rising. So it is not just about interest rate hikes, as you wrote, but because the Dollar is more attractive than other currency.
The Covid crisis was intense, but it is nothing compared to what we have now. What we have now is a mix of huge factors which hasn't been seen since World War II. It will be interesting when BTC hits the 10k mark. Then everyone (who still has money) will start buying. And then... the decline continues after first leading investors the wrong way with a series of counter-moves and bull traps until real fear breaks out and everything becomes much more negative. The bottom does not come through Elliot Wave or a low in the indicators because they are only tools in TA, and they are lagging. The bottom comes only because of an improvement in the world situation.
We will see it for sure in the time to come, so it will be interesting for sure. Happy trading, and good luck!
BlackisKing
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@Ether2020, I mean what you are describing is a depression and I dont see it happening, yet. Yes the dollar is strong but we all know how much the fed printed the last few years. In essence the dollar has been diluted yet it is pumping, this will not last. And I disagree that now is worse than covid when the whole world was literally shutdown. Having said that the elections in the usa is coming in a few months, dont be suprised to see the market rally starting next month. It will be interesting to see as you say and I will be watching.