I could wait until the end of May to publish this but I still felt it was worth updating. I felt it was worth updating since the daily chart can't seem to get going despite a very bullish daily pattern revealing accumulation. The monthly downtrend is very weak because it hasn't reached the downside targets and there is no follow through or range expansion on the downside even after a major bounce from 150 to 297 (a nearly 100% advance in 2 months).
Note how I added the many months that BTCUSD spent going sideways after a major up-move. I highlighted these two areas in GREEN polygons. I would add another polygon because each month since December has been "inside" the range of December. So, all moves in Bitcoin seem to take many months to digest before another move happens.
As for the downtrend on the monthly chart, the first of 9-month distribution zones expires at the end of May. The decline is unimpressive because the price hasn't fallen to 90 or to 66 yet, although 150 was a decent decline. When you get into large %-changes on charts, it doesn't take much to make a major shift in your target.
Keep in mind: At the end of June, if there is no new low below 150, then a new uptrend will be starting but only if the price is above the mode, which will mean we need to be ABOVE a monthly high of one of the months since December.
Tim 237.35 last BTCUSD 5/14/2015
Note how I added the many months that BTCUSD spent going sideways after a major up-move. I highlighted these two areas in GREEN polygons. I would add another polygon because each month since December has been "inside" the range of December. So, all moves in Bitcoin seem to take many months to digest before another move happens.
As for the downtrend on the monthly chart, the first of 9-month distribution zones expires at the end of May. The decline is unimpressive because the price hasn't fallen to 90 or to 66 yet, although 150 was a decent decline. When you get into large %-changes on charts, it doesn't take much to make a major shift in your target.
Keep in mind: At the end of June, if there is no new low below 150, then a new uptrend will be starting but only if the price is above the mode, which will mean we need to be ABOVE a monthly high of one of the months since December.
Tim 237.35 last BTCUSD 5/14/2015
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