It's been nearly one month since I pinpointed Bitcoin's bottom, and honestly, the price action since then has more or less happened as predicted. And yet, I've been ghost for the past week. Why is that?
To be honest, there wasn't much coming to mind that needed to be published. At last check, I speculated where the short-term peak was going to be for Bitcoin, as the RSI flirting with an overbuy. The peak ended up being lower than expected, but the projected regression literally started within an hour after I published the idea. My timing was impeccable, but my price projection was not.
Since that point, I've been stewing on my thoughts. On Tuesday, I thought about publishing an idea asking, "when does regression turn into a down trend?" But Bitcoin never really got low enough. Look at the three red arrows I included in this chart. If the most recent arrow got below the middle one, then it would've been appropriate to publish that idea.
Look at the three low points since BTC's breakout past my pink trendline channel, which occurred on 2018-04-12. Each succeeding low has been higher, thus indicating a bull market for Bitcoin and confirming the same for entire crypto space (see: altcoin price action over the past six weeks). However, this isn't an aggressive bull market by any stretch of the imagination.
We could speculate why. Maybe the institutional money is limiting volatility. Maybe the stubborn bears are offering resistance. Maybe the casual investors that got burned post-boom are staying away for now. Honestly, I don't care why. I like it for the way it is for now. The mania that consumed the crypto space at the turn of the year made the ensuing regression tough to project. The fall-back was SO harsh that it was tough to differentiate the regression from any independent decline. I'd much rather there be brief bits of regression, like what Bitcoin had on 2018-04-25 and like what many altcoins have right now. I know these fall-backs are intricately linked the preceding overbuy status.
Anyways, let's get to the point. I titled this idea "Slow and Steady Wins the Race," and that's because this controlled price incline will give many traders an opportunity to earn consistent winnings. Those winnings might be modest if sold at the short-term level, but it's better than getting burned. Also, I say "Slow and Steady Wins the Race" because the longer plays made at Bitcoin's bottom remain in tact. **To be transparent, I made my last BTC buy at around 6.95K and tied much of that into altcoins. I've since been able to nearly double my holdings, with the help of a few swing trades. Not all my swing trades were big winners, but all those trades were rooted in a healthy BTC market. That made my April portfolio look very green.**
When I look at the daily chart for Bitcoin, I feel confident we were still headed up at a healthy pace. No moons. No lambos. Just a healthy pace that gives us time to set up some modest winning trades.
I am leaving up the past trendlines from my previous ideas. I'll consider those trendline channels to be the top (blue) and bottom (pink) for now, until the price action indicates otherwise. See links to those related ideas if you want to see my thoughts and reactions to those respective situations. But if not, just note that the trendlines have a slope that equate to an approximate $20.15 increase each day, which is very modest compared to the $1684 gain from the close of 2018-04-12 to the approximate 9.6K current level. Thus, the top is more likely to change than the bottom.
Don't be impatient. While this is a buyer's market, don't expect major gains at a break-neck pace. If you chase money, you'll lose. If you take the time to set up trades, you'll win.
To be honest, there wasn't much coming to mind that needed to be published. At last check, I speculated where the short-term peak was going to be for Bitcoin, as the RSI flirting with an overbuy. The peak ended up being lower than expected, but the projected regression literally started within an hour after I published the idea. My timing was impeccable, but my price projection was not.
Since that point, I've been stewing on my thoughts. On Tuesday, I thought about publishing an idea asking, "when does regression turn into a down trend?" But Bitcoin never really got low enough. Look at the three red arrows I included in this chart. If the most recent arrow got below the middle one, then it would've been appropriate to publish that idea.
Look at the three low points since BTC's breakout past my pink trendline channel, which occurred on 2018-04-12. Each succeeding low has been higher, thus indicating a bull market for Bitcoin and confirming the same for entire crypto space (see: altcoin price action over the past six weeks). However, this isn't an aggressive bull market by any stretch of the imagination.
We could speculate why. Maybe the institutional money is limiting volatility. Maybe the stubborn bears are offering resistance. Maybe the casual investors that got burned post-boom are staying away for now. Honestly, I don't care why. I like it for the way it is for now. The mania that consumed the crypto space at the turn of the year made the ensuing regression tough to project. The fall-back was SO harsh that it was tough to differentiate the regression from any independent decline. I'd much rather there be brief bits of regression, like what Bitcoin had on 2018-04-25 and like what many altcoins have right now. I know these fall-backs are intricately linked the preceding overbuy status.
Anyways, let's get to the point. I titled this idea "Slow and Steady Wins the Race," and that's because this controlled price incline will give many traders an opportunity to earn consistent winnings. Those winnings might be modest if sold at the short-term level, but it's better than getting burned. Also, I say "Slow and Steady Wins the Race" because the longer plays made at Bitcoin's bottom remain in tact. **To be transparent, I made my last BTC buy at around 6.95K and tied much of that into altcoins. I've since been able to nearly double my holdings, with the help of a few swing trades. Not all my swing trades were big winners, but all those trades were rooted in a healthy BTC market. That made my April portfolio look very green.**
When I look at the daily chart for Bitcoin, I feel confident we were still headed up at a healthy pace. No moons. No lambos. Just a healthy pace that gives us time to set up some modest winning trades.
I am leaving up the past trendlines from my previous ideas. I'll consider those trendline channels to be the top (blue) and bottom (pink) for now, until the price action indicates otherwise. See links to those related ideas if you want to see my thoughts and reactions to those respective situations. But if not, just note that the trendlines have a slope that equate to an approximate $20.15 increase each day, which is very modest compared to the $1684 gain from the close of 2018-04-12 to the approximate 9.6K current level. Thus, the top is more likely to change than the bottom.
Don't be impatient. While this is a buyer's market, don't expect major gains at a break-neck pace. If you chase money, you'll lose. If you take the time to set up trades, you'll win.
Bitcoin seems to be following the recent altcoin regressive tumble.
But fear not, tonight's low is still more than $400 higher than the 2018-05-01 low annotated with the third red arrow on the chart. If BTC falls below that low ($8831.21), then we can start examining the possibility that Bitcoin is reversing its upward climb.
For now, it's just another wave that seems to be following a general upward trend with a conservative slope. Keep your eyes peeled, but stay worry-free for now.
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