BITCOIN This model reveals two scenarios for the next 4 months!

Those who follow me for quite some time know that I am a frequent user of the Pitchfan method. On this study I present a very interesting approach using this tool that reveals how Bitcoin may trade in the next 4 months!


** The Pitchfan approach **
As you see on the chart I have applied the Pitchfan on the first Higher High and first Higher Low (September 2020) before BTC's parabolic move started (October). The trend-lines that arise and have the most impact (i.e. most hits/ contacts) with the price besides the median (red bold line, 3 hits made) are the 0.618 (red dotted line, 7 hits), the 1.0 (blue bold line, 5 hits) and the 1.382 (blue dashed line, 1 hit). For technical reasons, I have included the 2.0 Fib (black line), which hasn't had any impact though.


** The Red and Green patterns **
I will not describe in detail every contact with those Fib extensions but as you see the patterns that emerged are quite clear and I have displayed them in arc/ curve shapes of Red and Green. I have also included onl for reference purposes the Green Curve that started before the Pitchfan is applied after the March COVID melt-down bottom, but is outside the model, so just keep it as visual.


** The importance of the 1D MA50 **
The price has currently bounced on the Median and the question that arises is will it hold and what will be the next price movement in either case? Well that's where the 1D MA50 (in order not to mix it up with the Pitch lines, I have displayed it in yellow this time instead of my usual blue) may provide the answer. Last time Bitcoin closed a 1D candle clearly below the MA50, was back in September 03, 2020. That was when the Red Curve started.

Does this mean that there are more probabilities to see a Red Curve pattern if the Median breaks? Could be, especially if we assume that the Green and Red Curves follow in turn (one succeeds the other). In that scenario BTC may reach the $100k benchmark by late August. The Green Curve pattern, even though not out of the picture, it is indeed very optimistic and for the same horizon projects a target of around $170k.


But what do you think? Which pattern is BTCUSD most likely to follow, the Red or the Green? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!



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Comment:

Please ignore the CCI indicator at the bottom of the chart. It messes up a little the clarity of the trend-lines so just minimize it and zoom more into the chart for a better visual of the Pitchfan model.