Looking at 2014 & 2017/18 post ATH 0.18% it is clear the highs and lows are following a very SIMILAR PATTERN.
IF we now follow the same movement as 2014, this is Bitcoin's last hurrah before declining and ending in capitulation before we can begin again.
Let's have a look at the numbers:
2014: From ATH 0.18% (2013-11-25) to the 4th low (2014-4-7) it took: nearly 5 months. 2018: From ATH 0.18% (2017-12-11) to the 4th low (2018-6-18) it took: just under 6 months.
2014: From the last high (following 4th low) to the 5th low (capitulation) it took just over 6 months.
Takeaway: We seem to be following the same pattern and timescale, so can we expect a decline and capitulation during the next 6 months? Let's see.
All positive and negative comments welcome.
Disclaimer: I have only been into cryptocurrency for just over a year and TA around half a year.
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2014: From the last high ($686) to the 5th low ($275) it dropped 60%. 2018: IF the last high was $8,527 and IF we are following 2014, it should drop 60% to $3,411.
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Why when I typed *ATH did it automatically change it to that thing? Automatically detects tickers?
Incredible. I had come out with 3770 on one measurement and even closer to you at 3430 on another. In other words, minutia. Everyone seems to think the bottom is in but I just am not convinced. I was not in this space in 2014 but from things I hear, everyone was convinced a few times before actual bottom was found, AND several time BTC pulled some long green candles after those supposed bottoms. Three times during that bear market BTC made gains similar to our recent 45% (minimum), only to plunge even deeper. One time it even doubled in price. Many believed those levels had tested as "bottom" but all ended up being wrong.
I'd love for it to be done but it looks like we will have a bit more of this. Bear markets always last longer than we'd like.
Trade safe. No FOMO.
fifty2kph
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@Jeff_Cryptopop, it's great to have input from an experienced and level headed person that doesn't have hope blinkers on. My blinkers were on until the second dead cat bounce.it is not easy to be open to the other side. Have you always been open to both bull and bear thinking? Knowledge kills FOMO. I'm not a grader btw, just long term investor who's currently in fiat, waiting.
Jeff_Cryptopop
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@StrivingYogi, Sounds like the experienced and level headed person would be YOU. Haha. I am a rookie, admittedly. I was so excited to find that people actually charted these markets like other markets, even though I had no experience in any of them. I no longer felt like I needed to find that magic insider that would make me prosper. As for open, let's just say that even when I knew next-to-nothing about TA (I'm now simply standing next to next-to-nothing) I quickly figured out who understood what we were in and which charts were complete BS. It's tough when the groundhog tells you it'll be so many more weeks of winter, but I need to know what will be, not what I wish would be.
I'm mostly in fiat as well right now. I kept a couple of trades on small alts that I believe in and have held their own up till now against BTC's fall. That was until last week. Heh. Oh well, they'll bounce.
fifty2kph
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@Jeff_Cryptopop, Ah it seems I didn't see the word "not" haha. Either way, it's very important to keep your mind open to other views. I've found you can learn and develop more this way. It's certainly not easy to make that change though, especially when there is money involved. Some like to follow, others not. I can't blindly follow, never have so I just learned basics, that's it. I'm also very interested in the psychology aspect. Yes, there are indeed a lot of over hopeful BSers on Twitter and YouTube. Speaking of which, add me on Twitter if you like: @StrivingYogi - I tweet Crypto, gold, silver and US polictics ha oh and occasional food porn.
Jeff_Cryptopop
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@StrivingYogi, Although we've seen a new low since the ATH, it seems to be more of a "comfortable" bottom than a real bottom. Bulls seemed quite okay that 5800 was the bottom, but that's not how bear markets usually work. The thing missing is the word you used...capitulation. We haven't gotten that far yet. Crypto is high risk but also amazingly high in reward. With that comes high stubbornness on the part of participants. Perhaps it's because many have not just money invested but their identity invested in crypto? I don't think you'll see a bottom until we start hearing of long time HODLers cashing out, either because they believe the "glory days of crypto" are over, OR they panic because they believe a full on crash is coming. I'm only just now hearing permabears complain about "how hard it is for the little guy" in here.Even crypto industry magazines will start asking "Is this the end for BTC?" before bear season ends and it flips.
This of course is observations outside of TA. I think right now we're still at discomfort. We haven't yet reached despair.
Trade safe, my new friend. No FOMO. :))
fifty2kph
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@Jeff_Cryptopop, ya, nothing like a real bottom #amirite Anyways, I agree those HODLers sure are stubborn, that's why another six months of bear shouldn't come as a surprise. Seems to be following that line I drew down to 5 quite obediently so far.
TheRajatJadhav
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we tested the bottoms this time with more volume (comparative) and for longer durations. Another touch of 5000 possible (maybe 4750) but definitely not dropping another 40% from the 6k low.
fifty2kph
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@TheRajatJadhav, Thanks for the input, valuable point. Let's find out.
I'd love for it to be done but it looks like we will have a bit more of this. Bear markets always last longer than we'd like.
Trade safe. No FOMO.