Since topping at 13.8k a couple months ago, we have been in choppy consolidation, and forming lower high on high time frames.
Currently, I am short biased HTF and looking for longs on LTFs if we can hold the 10.2-10.3k region. Waiting for confirmation is key here, and closing above 10.5k with volume would make me bullish and targeting $11,170.
A clear loss of the 10.2-10.3k region and I'm targeting 9.9k at the least.
$10,430 is the level to watch.
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Bitcoin is following this analysis perfectly. If we can reclaim 10,469 I am looking for longs and targeting the same as earlier, with $11,170. A clear loss of this order block and I am officially shorting every bounce.
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After a successful play of 9.9k which marked nearly the exact bottom ($9,860), we have been ranging between 10.1k and 10.4k and I am expecting a move to the upside from here. We have taken liquidity from the lower range we've created since August 15th. If you notice, we printed a bullish SFP reversal on August 15th at 04:00 UTC, and that started a new cycle once we broke $9,880 that topped around $10,950.
This leads me to believe that approximately $9,870 is the major pivot point for this entire macro structure, and a loss of this level would invalidate my bullish thesis. If we can flip $10,430 as support on HTFs and print a bullish weekly candle today, the goal will be to long any pullbacks. Failure to hold above $10,430 strongly would give me caution. Given the recent price action (Kraken scamwick from 8k-12k) and general choppiness, it appears wise to scale in cautiously.