Guys, this is a VERY long term view and a big picture of Bitcoin. The arrows represent price action and are not meant as a firm or exact time estimate.
I have said before numerous times, and will keep reiterating to the masses: STOP ACCUMULATING BITCOIN. DO NOT MORTGAGE YOUR HOUSE TO BUY BITCOIN. I am PROVING my long term outlook with volume, which is extremely important to understand. VOLUME does not lie. Volume is the INTENT of big buyers that control the market.
People keep crapping all over this, saying that I am an absolute idiot for not thinking that Bitcoin will go to a million dollars per Bitcoin because it has grown so much... Fact is, I don't care. If I can save one person their live's investment because they went in on the hype not realizing the reality of the situation, that's all I care about.
If you have any grasp of why volume is so important in trading, you should immediately be stunned by what is shaping up to happen on Bitcoin.
Analysis:
-Bitcoin actually broke BELOW a major trendline on November 2018 with high volume confirmation (bearish) -Price broke the flag pattern in August of 2020 with EXTREMELY low volume (bearish) -Price then broke out of ATH trading range on LOW VOLUME in August of 2020 (bearish) -Price made a "double top" on the broken trendline (bearish) -Price just made another "double top" on the local trading range and tried to push above it with LOW VOLUME (bearish)
If I am correctly seeing this, price should make a retrace all the way back to the first trendline it broke above with low volume, meaning the blue line in the flag pattern. This is apx around 6k to 7k... However, this is just the beginning. I expect the price to fall to the next major support around $1200...
Listen - a ton of you won't like this because it doesn't fit the narrarative that Bitcoin is better than gold, and inflation hedge this and hedge that, etc...
Volume based trading doesn't care about any of that. It just cares about MOTIVE and if the whales that steer this market agree with any kind of a move.
Here is the deal, these market makers are artificially inflating the price of Bitcoin so they can sell it for a crazy profit and dump everyone off. This is exactly what volume is proving to be the case. There is about to be an absolute bloodbath. Don't be the fish in the barrel all the rich people are collecting.
Seriously... Stop accumulating Bitcoin for the long run. You are about to be obliterated and left holding bags worth NOTHING. The institutions manipulating Bitcoin are about to get away with possibly the largest theft in human history.
Comment
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I didn't even mention another strong signal that predicts weakness: OBV.
Are you guys seeing that while price has made higher highs, OBV has not??? That it is diverging between price?
The volume is Bitfinex only. Maybe you just analized the decreasing market dominance of Bitfinex. You don't took OTC and the other platforms into account.
But sure, all cryptos can drop to Zero and everything in between. And also rocket to moon and everything in between. ^^ It is like a religion: It grows until the god fails too hard. BTC was made for no need for trust in a centralized institution, but it wasn't made as a moon rocket. It was never made for endless trust in growing. The only trust you can have is that if you own x btc, that you still own x btc tomorrow (as long as only you have the keys and don't move them). Not more, not less. Not how much fiat it will worth in the future. And because the network is not that decentralized anymore (big mining companies and none democratic staats getting into mining and investing too) and whales also invest massive into btc, we could say that btc faild. 2% of the addresses hold 95% of the coins. 0.01% of the addresses hold 42% of the coins. ^^
simplejoe1
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BTC is a scary investment. never know when the ponzi scheme will end
ThisInvestmentLooksGreat
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Guys, don't discard the possibility of just a slow, very slow and painful, painful and slow grind down. Why does it have to collapse to oblivion in one giant leap of death? How many people will get scared, panic sell and never return. Won't it be MORE profitable for the market makers to play it slow, give people hope every month or so with a slow grind down that can take years?
Johny7
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@ThisInvestmentLooksGreat, This is not how markets work though. You look even at historic stock market crashes, as manipulated and controlled as they are a slow grind down is usually not how they collapse. This is not to say that BTC will collapse overnight but it can happen within a span of a few days or weeks. Which, given how long it took to get to 50/60k will be painful indeed.
ThisInvestmentLooksGreat
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@Johny7, Well, yeah now that I think more about it I think you can be correct. Thanks
Candle_Styx
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You could be on to something. I also see it coming. When is the question that we should ask. Everything is always possible! a black swan event could happen. The world could go to shiat for a while and maybe even the electrical grid or internet could go down. IF so then nobody would care about markets or money. At least for some time. Everyone expecting 100k. maybe we wont get it.. or if we get it we might have this crash from there. i also see a potentially brutal crash coming.. It would not be unusual for Bitcoin. This could be the opportunity of a lifetime. If you like it or not. Keep the possibility open and do not get caught with your pants down.
Zulu_Kilo
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@Candle_Styx, I will agree on the fact that something big will have to be publicated for the "reason" for this major crash. Although I'm not seeing it as a "black swan" event, I am purely seeing it as a factual provable cause, regardless of how the institutions excuse the event in the media to sell to us.
The fact is, they already know this is going to happen. But you're right in the fact that they will have to come up with a narrarative to not expose the absolute crookedness of what actually happened. Effectively, they created an artificial bubble that they are going to profit from directly. Just wondering how they are going to sell it to the public?
siamakcgm
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@Candle_Styx, you just said what I found based on data and historical events and it keeps repeating over and over and over…. We are headed for shit! Big shit! I think a huge huge bubble will form. Btc 340k, s and p at 8100 tesla stock will hit 3400 and then crash. Possible war and bigger historical event. People should really be ready now because everyday passes it will get worse. I have been anticipating stuff to happen and so far it’s all happening and heading towards that direction.
Johny7
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@siamakcgm, You know BTC at 340k sounds massive but it's all a question of what those 340k will buy by then. For better or worse everyone still thinks of cypto in terms of fiat and what value fiat has. And this is also how the bankers maintain ultimate control. I think the set-up for hardship has already been made. Commodity dips such as the one of yesterday are a huge buying opportunity.
siamakcgm
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Btc will bottom max at around 30k then go up to 80k drop again and repeat that until it reaches 340k then drop to around 55k. $1300 btc is not going to happen ( cycle has to end ). Maybe when they make something that takes more attention in the next few decades. I am not dropping random numbers. I use historical data and math. We just have to wait and see what will happen over the next 4 years. Btw I don’t disagree with the things u say and I don’t own btc so I am not biased. What you say could happen but this cycle has to finish which is 340k price range. After that we may see another cycle or may never see another cycle.
But sure, all cryptos can drop to Zero and everything in between. And also rocket to moon and everything in between. ^^ It is like a religion: It grows until the god fails too hard. BTC was made for no need for trust in a centralized institution, but it wasn't made as a moon rocket. It was never made for endless trust in growing. The only trust you can have is that if you own x btc, that you still own x btc tomorrow (as long as only you have the keys and don't move them). Not more, not less. Not how much fiat it will worth in the future. And because the network is not that decentralized anymore (big mining companies and none democratic staats getting into mining and investing too) and whales also invest massive into btc, we could say that btc faild. 2% of the addresses hold 95% of the coins. 0.01% of the addresses hold 42% of the coins. ^^