Bitcion did a textbook retracement to the 0618 and is now in a descending triangle using the .382 level as the trap door the price keeps temporarily finding support on.
BTCUSD is spending its seventh day below the 100D Moving average, and that is a pretty bearish situation in my book. Add to that we have slipped the ichimoku cloud, which is turned red and is at a moderate thickness, and we have another case that the descending triangle is going to perform properly.
Add to that the OBV situation and things begin to look rather grim for the bulls. The EMA settings on the OBV are 10 (red) 20 (blue) and 100 (green) and these crosses can be very powerful signals, especially on the daily or above time frame. We had the bearish stack of OBV EMAS yesterday and quite frankly, this does't seem to be a situation the bulls can endure
The blue rectangle shows us the inverse situation. The ichimoku cloud was extraordinarily thin, the 100D MA was being tested as support, and the OBV EMAs were pending a bullish cross. In fact, it was my complete inability at the time to predict the April Fools Day pump that caused me to add tools to my TA that got me to look at the OBV EMAs, which can be quite powerful when combined with divergences. The fact that the OBV ema situation is at a near technical double top while the price action stalled at the .618 level is another sign to me that the bulls ran out of money to spend here.
Please check out the linked posts for more details on intermediate and final target setting.
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Here is the weekly view with both crypto clouds. Looks like hell, right? We might find support on the cloud around 6.4k but I think it will be tissue support. We will see how the bottom of the cloud holds. The progress of the OBV EMAS is one of the most important things to watch in BTCUSD right now.
@This_Guhy The high to low amount of the descending triangle is $4,797. If the descending triangle breaks to the downside, the target is $4,274 (9071-4797=4274).
This_Guhy
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@awh2830, Often chart formations only perform 60-76% to target. Descending triangles perform 64% to target. That is where we could expect a consolidation or bounce on the way down.
@jryda, Please check out the Gold and Bitcoin post, which shows why I think we are setting a lower low on BTCUSD and how that sets up my $1.2-1.4k target.