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Consensio: P < S MA < M MA < bullish L MA (recent death cross, watch for L MA to flatten / angle down. If that happens the fully bearish posture)
Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Massive falling wedge??? Horizontals: R: $3,660 | S: $3,515 Trendline: Potential falling wedge Parabolic SAR: $3,942 Futures Curve: Backwardation with 3.79% spread (increased ever so slightly) BTCUSDSHORTS: Attempting to take out local low. If that happens target is 19,569 Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0028% TD’ Sequential: R2 = R1 Ichimoku Cloud: If you consider yesterday re entering then today it fell out along with a bearish TK Cross Average Directional Index: Still tracking toward the 20 threshold Price Action: 24h: -2.3% | 2w: -5.8% | 1m: +11.1% Bollinger Bands: MA is starting to flatten after finding support from the bottom band Stochastic Oscillator: Buy Signal
Summary: In @DVemer pointed out a long term bear trendline that stared with 2017’s ATH and connected to November 8, 2018. I found that very interesting and after further analysis I am seeing a potential falling with.
If it is real then it carries at $16,800 measure move. It is far too early to make that call but so far there are four out of six boxes checked, based on the rules that I use.
The last two steps would be breaking through the upper boundary on high volume. I would need to see the buying volume exceed the selling volume from November 20th, at an absolute minimum, in order to consider it sufficient. Even if that does happen I will be extremely skeptical due to the built up resistance at $6,000. I would likely go long but I would have a very, very hard time using a greater target than that in order to determine risk:reward.
The craziest part of all is if we get to $16,800 I still would not be considering it an end to the overall bear market. Phase 7 of a hyperwave is "the most maniacal" according to Tyler Jenks and as long as it resists below the peak of phase 6 then it is still valid / in tact, meaning that a return to phase 1 would still be the target. Wouldn't you know that the top of my phase 6 is $17,252...
Even though it is too early to call this pattern real, it is not to early to pay attention and mentally prepare yourself for anything. Never say never and always be open to possibilities. That is what I try my best to do. Even though I am firmly bearish I want to understand every bullish signal / indicator that is happening so that I don't get blind sided.
BTCUSD H4 Correction up. Checkout the idea detail's and all the update's for the complete picture.
Sawcruhteez
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@Boon2, Nice chart, that is roughly what I expect as well
riotcontrol
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I have been watching that long term pattern as well - I am weary of when and if it breaks due to some of the manipulation we have been seeing for weeks to months now. Due to some of these features, imho I'm putting the odds the bear market will last longer than start of 2020, possibly WELL into it. In the meantime, I think this will give successor coins a chance to take the spotlight which would be good and interesting for the space.
Sawcruhteez
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@nndhawan, I agree that there is > 50% chance bear market continues into 2020+. However I strongly disagree that it will give alts a 'chance to take the spotlight'. If BTC is still in bear market in 2020 then ETH < $10 and LTC < $1 and most others = $0. Those calls are mostly due to fundamentals as well as major support and resistance levels.
AqibMoeen
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Shouldn't you be drawing your phase 7 from the $17,252 and not from the ATH? I see your falling wedge but as per hyperwave theory if the phase 2 gets invalidated ~$5200-$5500 which it did aren't we due for a return to phase 1 around $1100-$1700?