Title says it all... In the previous analysis I explained that this was risky to remain bullish and that buyers should have profits secured and wait for corrective wave to build up in order to define an entry point to buy again later. But the bitcoin kept going.. but the worst would be to buy it again too soon.. this bull break is not part of a bullish impulse, it's more like the first wave of an ABC flat correction. Too soon to tell if this will be an Extended Flat or a Regular flat correction. But at this point we now have a signal to not only exit longs entirely, but also to give a short entry as Sinewave is showing early Reverse signal... wich means that once the price will validate the bear cycle, this one will be a Reverse.. this cycles means stict exit of all long positions and short entry for agressiv traders. I just shorted the BTC via CFD. My invalidation is detailed on chart.
Hope this idea will inspire some of you ! I'ld appreciate any like/follow if you feel like it deserve it ;) You can check my indicators via my TradingView's Profile : @PRO_Indicators
Comment
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IMPORTANT NOTE : I just wanted to set things straight cause I see strange reactions on social medias about this idea ! 1st : I'm not a perma-bear crypto trader who tries to sell the top for years... I have never sold cryps.. ever. Th'ats a first here. 2nd : I only see a corrective potential here and bare in mind that Running flat or Extended flat corrections are the most bullish corrective structures that a market can choose. So... Cryps are BULLISH yes, and they will still be in the future. So please don't use my idea to think cryptos will collapse and that we need to short long term. I don't think that. And I'll sure buy cryps again after that final corrective wave. 3rd : Selling correctives on a bull market cannot be done with leveraged positions. AND personnally I shorted leverage 0,25 to fit my money management to remain under 2,5% maximum loss on invalidation. SO here if the stoploss level is filled by the market I won't be ruined.. I'll lose faaaaar less than what I won during the bullish waves...
So please, don't be stupid... That's just a scenario, it can work, it can fail, I don't care... I don't see trading on a single shot neither should you ! And please remind that trading correctives are a way to make extra money yet still knowing that this is counter trendy and that you'll have to reverse once the scenario is terminated... SO YES I'LL BUY COINS AGAIN AFTER THAT WAVE !
Bests, Phil
Trade active
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Quick update via the intraday chart on 30m : I'm not yet taking the stop... that could be just an over extension.
Trade closed: stop reached
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What was supposed to be a weekly scenario is reaching stop Invalidation in 2 days ! Rarely seen that but apparently ultra bulls were right ! -3,4% on capital on this one. This is really crazy price action but can't stand it further.. trend is bullish, that was counter trend to make a few more profits on cryps.. Unable to sell, can't buy ! So.. I'm out of cryps until I get some new signals ! BTW the early signal has now disapeared of course ;) I traded it by anticipation ;) Doesn't work all the time !
IMPORTANT NOTE :
I just wanted to set things straight cause I see strange reactions on social medias about this idea !
1st : I'm not a perma-bear crypto trader who tries to sell the top for years... I have never sold cryps.. ever. Th'ats a first here.
2nd : I only see a corrective potential here and bare in mind that Running flat or Extended flat corrections are the most bullish corrective structures that a market can choose. So... Cryps are BULLISH yes, and they will still be in the future. So please don't use my idea to think cryptos will collapse and that we need to short long term. I don't think that. And I'll sure buy cryps again after that final corrective wave.
3rd : Selling correctives on a bull market cannot be done with leveraged positions. AND personnally I shorted leverage 0,25 to fit my money management to remain under 2,5% maximum loss on invalidation. SO here if the stoploss level is filled by the market I won't be ruined.. I'll lose faaaaar less than what I won during the bullish waves...
So please, don't be stupid... That's just a scenario, it can work, it can fail, I don't care... I don't see trading on a single shot neither should you ! And please remind that trading correctives are a way to make extra money yet still knowing that this is counter trendy and that you'll have to reverse once the scenario is terminated... SO YES I'LL BUY COINS AGAIN AFTER THAT WAVE !
Bests,
Phil
MaffeProg
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Great job you short it. Many people short btc and there are huge short positions. These position will be margin called and this will help to shoot bitcoin to huge levels. When a crisis trigger in the stock market bitcoin will grow insane.Because thats almost the only market which is safe. Mainstream adoption isn't yet started. Marketcap is only 63 billion which is nothing comparing to gold. I believe we will see 10k this year like I said previous year. And I also believe we will see 50k next year when everyone fight for 1 btc.
PRO_Indicators
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@MaffeProg, You seem to think I'm one of those who tried to sell btc for years cause "its too expensive and needs to retrace".. Which I'm not at all. Plus, I've been selling yes, but I have a clear invalidation level and targets, I'm not doing stupid belief trading here like most shorters of cryps are.. If this happens to be reaching the stoploss .. then I'll take a loss... and so what !? I don't see how that is a problem... I have a scenario, I'm trading on it end of story ! Of course I think I'm right, but I'm not risking my capital on this... you said margin trade... well all CFD today is margin traded... but I actually did trade this signal with 0,25 leverage... Again, I'm not one of those stupid guyz telling you they get billionnaire with enourmous leverage trading... Even though if we get the target I'm showing which is 30% retracement, then... That would still make a nice 8% net gain... loss will be less than 2%... So bear that in mind.. this is just a scenario, and I don't give a sh** if it turns out to be false ! I have plenty of other scenarios to develop and all I care about is the overall return. That aside, the quality of the signal I've been showing in this idea, seems pretty great.. Yet it still needs to validate.
UncannyDeduction
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I disagree
devilninja777
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2400... 1800?? Everyone and their mom expects BTC to reach 10K... who is gonna be selling that low? This is a different market from 2013, the sentiment around BTC is completely different. The FOMO is going to be much stronger than any technicals
PRO_Indicators
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@devilninja777, agree, that's that's the risk in this trade, as there's always one. Technicals don't always apply. Anyway if I'm wrong that will not be the end of my world ! Less than 2% loss risk for me on this trade if it ends up being stopped
usra
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Interesting to read a contrarian analysis. Well done.
navidfathi
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seems we have passed this point. Failed?
PRO_Indicators
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@navidfathi, Stoploss level has been set above the 127% extension just in case we had some volatilty. So for now I'm still in but yes breaking the 138% retracement tends to say the scenario is going wrong. But a scenario is a scenario, and so far it's still in place.
I just wanted to set things straight cause I see strange reactions on social medias about this idea !
1st : I'm not a perma-bear crypto trader who tries to sell the top for years... I have never sold cryps.. ever. Th'ats a first here.
2nd : I only see a corrective potential here and bare in mind that Running flat or Extended flat corrections are the most bullish corrective structures that a market can choose. So... Cryps are BULLISH yes, and they will still be in the future. So please don't use my idea to think cryptos will collapse and that we need to short long term. I don't think that. And I'll sure buy cryps again after that final corrective wave.
3rd : Selling correctives on a bull market cannot be done with leveraged positions. AND personnally I shorted leverage 0,25 to fit my money management to remain under 2,5% maximum loss on invalidation. SO here if the stoploss level is filled by the market I won't be ruined.. I'll lose faaaaar less than what I won during the bullish waves...
So please, don't be stupid... That's just a scenario, it can work, it can fail, I don't care... I don't see trading on a single shot neither should you ! And please remind that trading correctives are a way to make extra money yet still knowing that this is counter trendy and that you'll have to reverse once the scenario is terminated... SO YES I'LL BUY COINS AGAIN AFTER THAT WAVE !
Bests,
Phil