While technically my preferred count has not been ruled out yet, I am increasingly feeling that this is not feeling like the market I would expect if wave 3 up had already begun.
So, I am considering the possibility that my alt count may actually be the one in force. In this case, the move down that ended at 88 was a wave 3, and we are now either already in wave 5 down, or it is about to start.
Too bad we can't know these things with clarity before the fact..
Comments
Abandon
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I think that 100 has significant gravity, and that it acts like a pivot point. If the price goes below that, people will buy, if it goes above that, people will sell. 100 may have shielded us from a further fall, or prevented us from bouncing back. Perhaps both.
geometricThinking
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If my alt count is correct, and wave 5 is about to get started, or resume, then the market will likely fall below 70 -- maybe to 50-60. That is the bad news. The good news is that ordinary people will have the ability to buy btc (relatively) cheap from at the expense of some of the btc billionaires out there. But only if they have the courage to buy the lows. The lows won't last long, and it is very hard to actually buy the lows. Few people actually do.
Abandon
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What I mean to say is, the longer is stays at around 100, the more likely it is to rise than fall. The 100 pivot neglects most of the force of waves. The sentiment has become more bullish recently, and the China markets indicate that Mt. Gox is oversold. Yet most see us being at this 100 pivot for a while longer. I see us rising within the week to above 110 at least, but I don't see such a steep ascension, this isn't a big market, so such rises are very rare. It has to be a more cautious rise, it has to slowly build up steam for people to get confidence in it again.